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MBA Forecasts 11 Percent Rise in Commercial and Multifamily Originations

Housing Levels Rise Pic

In its second annual forecast of the commercial/multifamily real estate finance markets, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projects originations of commercial and multifamily mortgages will grow to $254 billion in 2013, an increase of 11 percent from 2012 volumes, and continue to rise to $289 billion in 2015. Originations of multifamily mortgages are forecast at $100 billion in 2013.

"2012 was a strong year for the commercial and multifamily mortgage markets, and 2013 is shaping up to continue the growth,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s VP of Commercial Real Estate Research. “Despite a 21 percent decline in the volume of commercial and multifamily mortgages maturing this year, we expect origination volumes and the amount of mortgage debt outstanding will both increase. Our forecast anticipates Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA, as well as life insurance companies, will all continue to have strong appetites for making loans, and—coupled with growth in originations for CMBS—the total market will continue to expand.”

Commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding is expected to grow in 2013, ending the year above $2.4 trillion, more than two percent higher than at the end of 2012. By the end of 2015, mortgage debt outstanding is forecast to exceed $2.5 trillion. MBA previewed its forecast of the commercial/multifamily real estate finance markets at its Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Housing Convention in San Diego.

“MBA’s commercial real estate finance forecast is an outgrowth of our surveys and research on the commercial and multifamily real estate finance markets and complements our macro-economic and single-family finance forecasts,” said Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s chief economist and senior vice president of Research and Education. “In only its second year, it’s already becoming a key tool MBA’s members rely on as part of their business planning.”

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