Risk index sees greater chance of home price declinesMortgagePress.comHousing market news
The risk of price declines has increased in 36 of the nation's
50 largest housing markets, according to the PMI U.S. Market Risk
Index. Joining Boston and Long Island (Nassau-Suffolk), N.Y., four
California marketsSan Diego, San Jose, Santa Ana and Oaklandcrossed
the 50 percent mark, raising the number of regions with a greater
than 50 percent chance of experiencing price declines to six.
Nationwide, there exists a 21.3 percent probability of an overall
house price decline, as measured within the next two years and
across the 50 largest housing markets, up marginally from 20.2
percent last quarter.
"The latest PMI Market Risk Index numbers show that house price
risk continues to be concentrated along the coasts, as it has been
for some time," said Mark Milner, chief risk officer with the PMI
Mortgage Insurance Company. "But, what we are seeing with these
numbers is that risk has increased in the non-coastal markets, as
well."
The PMI U.S. Market Risk Index is published quarterly by PMI
Mortgage Insurance Company, a subsidiary of The PMI Group Inc., as
part of its Economic and Real Estate Trends report. The summer
issue also reports that:
†In some areas, house price appreciation has moved from
center cities to surrounding areas, which may indicate a new trend.
Riverside, Calif.; Providence; Newark, N.J.; and Edison, N.J. all
saw higher increases than their metropolitan centers (Los Angeles,
Boston and New York).
†The risk scores of some areas have dropped, including New
York (which moved from 331 to 326); Detroit (379 to 295);
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis. (251 to 249); Fort
Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla. (236-219); Denver-Aurora, Colo.
(208-169); and Miami (181-166).
†Seattle is the only West Coast metropolitan statistical area
among the Risk Index's bottom 10, with a decrease from 84 in the
first quarter to 64 in the second quarter.
†The five least risky areas remain
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, Tenn.; Memphis;
Cincinnati-Middletown; and Indianapolis; with Pittsburgh last on
the list with a score of 56, up marginally from the first quarter
(55).
For a copy of the report, visit www.pmigroup.com.
