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RESPA reform roundtables continue to garner industry interest

National Mortgage Professional
Jan 26, 2006

Risk index sees greater chance of home price declinesMortgagePress.comHousing market news The risk of price declines has increased in 36 of the nation's 50 largest housing markets, according to the PMI U.S. Market Risk Index. Joining Boston and Long Island (Nassau-Suffolk), N.Y., four California marketsSan Diego, San Jose, Santa Ana and Oaklandcrossed the 50 percent mark, raising the number of regions with a greater than 50 percent chance of experiencing price declines to six. Nationwide, there exists a 21.3 percent probability of an overall house price decline, as measured within the next two years and across the 50 largest housing markets, up marginally from 20.2 percent last quarter. "The latest PMI Market Risk Index numbers show that house price risk continues to be concentrated along the coasts, as it has been for some time," said Mark Milner, chief risk officer with the PMI Mortgage Insurance Company. "But, what we are seeing with these numbers is that risk has increased in the non-coastal markets, as well." The PMI U.S. Market Risk Index is published quarterly by PMI Mortgage Insurance Company, a subsidiary of The PMI Group Inc., as part of its Economic and Real Estate Trends report. The summer issue also reports that: †In some areas, house price appreciation has moved from center cities to surrounding areas, which may indicate a new trend. Riverside, Calif.; Providence; Newark, N.J.; and Edison, N.J. all saw higher increases than their metropolitan centers (Los Angeles, Boston and New York). †The risk scores of some areas have dropped, including New York (which moved from 331 to 326); Detroit (379 to 295); Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis. (251 to 249); Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla. (236-219); Denver-Aurora, Colo. (208-169); and Miami (181-166). †Seattle is the only West Coast metropolitan statistical area among the Risk Index's bottom 10, with a decrease from 84 in the first quarter to 64 in the second quarter. †The five least risky areas remain Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, Tenn.; Memphis; Cincinnati-Middletown; and Indianapolis; with Pittsburgh last on the list with a score of 56, up marginally from the first quarter (55). For a copy of the report, visit
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