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GAO recognizes HUD's management reforms

May 22, 2007

Real estate hot spots highlighted in CMRMMortgagePress.comforecasts the relative risk of residential mortgage loan delinquencies due to fraud propensity and collateral risk CoreLogic has released the results of its first quarter Core Mortgage Risk Monitor (CMRM), a quarterly publication tracking an economic index that forecasts the relative risk of residential mortgage loan delinquencies due to fraud propensity and collateral risk, house price dynamics and the health of the local market economy. An elevated Core Mortgage Risk Index signals the increased potential for financially-disruptive and costly economic consequences for consumers, their local community and the mortgage industry. The CMRM examines 379 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States, representing 89 percent of the population. Based on fourth quarter 2006 data, among the largest 100 MSAs (the top 100 MSAs represent 66 percent of the U.S. population), the top five markets most at risk over the next six months include: -Memphis, Tenn. -Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn, Mich. -Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio-Pa. -Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, Mich. -Indianapolis-Carmel, Ind. Relative to the base period of the first quarter of 2002, the 2006 fourth quarter Index completes a year of relatively low risk, in contrast to the prior three years. A driving force behind these results is the continued decline in the unemployment rate, which remains at historically low levels. At this time, the negative effects of a slowdown in housing costs are being offset by the positive effects of low unemployment. While overall house price appreciation has stopped its slide and risen slightly from five percent in the third quarter of 2006 to just over six percent in the fourth quarter of 2006, many markets continue to experience house price declines. The top 10 riskiest markets among all 379 markets monitored have a consistent pattern of house price depreciation, higher than average unemployment, lower than average wage growth and higher than average fraud and collateral risk. According to the Index, one particular region to watch is the Florida area, most notable the Fort Lauderdale, Tampa and Jacksonville areas that are currently low risk, but appear to be quickly moving out of this category. All three have moved up their risk ranking by more than 11 places over the third quarter of 2006. The CMRM also finds that fraud and collateral risk, components of the overall risk index, continue to rise, posting the ninth consecutive quarterly increase. It is currently growing at an annualized rate of 2.4 percent. Foreclosure activity remained higher in 2006 than in years past. CoreLogic models have previously revealed that a five percent increase in the foreclosure rates increases the likelihood of fraud by more than 20 percent. For more information, visit www.csmarketing.com.
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