Skip to main content

NMP’s Market Barometer: July 2009 Part II

David Beadle
Jul 15, 2009

Provided exclusively to National Mortgage Professional Magazine by David Beadle, president of BestInfo Inc., the BestRates cell, pager and e-mail rate alert service for mortgage industry subscribers. A reading of "1" has the lowest impact on rates, while "10" has the highest. Although carefully verified, data are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. BestInfo Inc. cannot be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss or liability incurred by applying any of the information or opinions in this feature. July 23 June Existing Home Sales Rate Impact: 6  Home sales statistics are caught between a rock and a hard place. If sales begin to rise, there is a strong likelihood that prospective sellers who have delayed placing their homes on the market due to weak demand will rush to post a "for sale" sign on their lawn. The result will be another addition to already bulging inventories, swelled by the number of foreclosed homes. Meanwhile, a continuing cutback on consumer credit could put an additional squeeze on household budgets, resulting in additional foreclosure activity as the unemployment rate rises. And that sets the stage for a double-dip recession. The June new home sales report will be released on July 27. July 28 July Consumer Confidence Rate Impact: 5 It's no secret that consumer attitudes about the economy have been one step away from depressed. Even if respondents to surveys claim they are feeling a bit better about the outlook, all it takes is a surge in gasoline prices or a drop in the stock market to trigger another tale of woe. And at the end of the day, it doesn't matter what people say, but rather, what they do with their money. Right now, most consumers are sticking to the basics. So long as this trend persists, the economy will be unable to expand at anything close to its previous pace. That's because consumer outlays account for over two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product. And the government cannot perpetually spend enough money to approximate that $9 trillion per year. July 30 Weekly Jobless Claims Rate Impact: 8 The layoff figures showed a glimmer of hope in the third week of June when the number of continuing claims for weekly jobless benefits fell for the first time since early January. But hopes that it would be the start of a trend were dashed a week later, when continuing claims moved back up again. And the "new claims" figure never made it below 600,000, falling to 605,000 on June 6 before rising back up to May levels as the fallout from the automobile industry's extended summertime plant shutdowns spread to related industries. If consumers decide to keep their older vehicles either because they cannot afford new ones or because they cannot obtain low-rate financing, the manufacturing malaise may continue. July 31 Q2 GDP Rate Impact: 10 The initial reading on second-quarter Gross Domestic Product will be released on this date, and will be viewed in light of the 5.5 percent decline for the first quarter and the 6.3 percent decline in last year's fourth quarter. There's great hope on Wall Street that the expected negative Q2 results will put the worst of the long-running recession behind us, with positive GDP numbers from the third quarter onward. But if geopolitical turmoil flares, the H1N1 influenza pandemic returns with a vengeance or the tightening consumer credit noose escalates, the chances for a deepening recession will rise and it could be a long slog before the economy returns to any semblance of normalcy. Send your inquiry to bestrates@nmpmediacorp.com for full details on a free two-week trial subscription.  
Published
Jul 15, 2009
CFPB Reports Trends In Financial Assistance

The latest developments from this study reveal that most consumers have exited the payment assistance they received at the start of the pandemic.

Analysis and Data
Jul 14, 2021
CFPB Orders GreenSky To Refund $9M In Unauthorized Loans

The consent order requires GreenSky to refund or cancel up to $9 million in loans for the customers harmed by this illegal conduct.

Regulation and Compliance
Jul 13, 2021
CFPB Warns Landlords And Consumer Reporting Agencies To Report Accurate Rental Information

Inaccurate rental or eviction information can unfairly block families and individuals from safe, affordable housing.

Regulation and Compliance
Jul 01, 2021
FHFA Mandates Quarterly Fair Lending Reports

FHFA issued orders for all enterprises to submit quarterly Fair Lending Reports with data and information to improve the FHFA’s capabilities. 

Regulation and Compliance
Jul 01, 2021
FHFA Follows CFPB To Protect Borrowers Once COVID-19 Foreclosure And Eviction Moratoriums End

The Federal Housing Finance Agency made it clear that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac servicers are not permitted to make first notice or filing for foreclosure that would be prohibited by the CFPB protections for borrowers affected by COVID-19.

Regulation and Compliance
Jun 30, 2021
CFPB Finds Evidence Of Redlining And Deceptive Acts In 2020

Enforcement actions resulted in more than $124 million in consumer remediation and civil money penalties in 2020

Regulation and Compliance
Jun 29, 2021