TransUnion has released its annual forecasts on consumer credit, which indicate that national mortgage loan delinquencies (the ratio of borrowers 60 or more days past due) will drop nearly 20 percent by the end of 2011 to 4.98 percent from an expected 6.21 percent at the conclusion of 2010. The projected decrease in 60-day mortgage delinquencies, a statistic generally considered a precursor to foreclosure, would more than double the 9.87 percent yearly decline that is expected between the end of 2009 and 2010 (from 6.89 percent to 6.21 percent). This is a welcome contrast to the year-over-year increases of 54 percent between 2006 and 2007, 53 percent between 2007 and 2008 and 50 percent between 2008 and 2009.
TransUnion is projecting double-digit declines in mortgage delinquencies for every state and the District of Columbia through 2011. Interestingly, the states projected to experience the greatest decreases in mortgage delinquencies—Nevada (-24.77 percent), Arizona (-24.27 percent) and Florida (-23.90 percent)—are the same areas expected to have the highest 60-day mortgage delinquency rates at the end of next year (Florida—11.06 percent; Nevada—10.87 percent; Arizona—7.59 percent).
North Dakota (1.12 percent), South Dakota (1.80 percent) and Nebraska (2.05 percent) should continue to rank among the states with the lowest delinquency rates at the end of next year.
"We believe the nation will experience an improvement in mortgage delinquencies during 2011," said Steve Chaouki, group vice president in TransUnion's financial services business unit. "This will be driven by a slowly improving unemployment picture and continued stabilization in housing prices. While there is continued price pressure in many markets, we expect a growing number of areas of the country to experience a rise in property values along with some stabilization of values in those states and markets hardest hit by the recession."
For more information, visit www.transunion.com/trenddata.