Pro Teck Valuation Services’ May Home Value Forecast (HVF) Update analyzes the shortage of available housing inventory and its impact on home prices by examining one of the leading market indicators for predicting home prices - the Sold-to-List Price Ratio. In this month’s update, the Honolulu, Tucson, San Francisco, and Chicago metro areas are highlighted to determine how the indicator has been useful from a historical perspective and in current market conditions to best predict home prices in markets with varying economic conditions.
“While many were predicting that REO and the ‘shadow inventory’ would keep real estate markets depressed, in reality the shortage of housing inventory has lead buyers to bid more competitively against one another leading to significant home price increases and tighter housing conditions,” said Tom O’Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services. “Aside from anecdotal stories, Home Value Forecast shows that one of the most reliable leading indicators to support this theory is the Sold-To- List Price ratio.”
In May’s Home Value Forecast Update, the authors examine how the ratio of the sold price to the listing price (Sold-to-List Price Ratio) typically fluctuates between 92 percent and 98 percent, but in very hot markets can exceed 100 percent. The update takes a historical look (1978 to 2011) at the Honolulu metro Sold-to-List Price Ratio and the annual percent change in the median condominium sold price.
“The Sold-to-Listed Price Ratio has historically lead home prices by approximately six months over the past three real estate cycles and its turning points have been excellent signals for the same in condo prices,” added O’Grady.
In addition, the authors highlight quarterly value back to 1994 for the Tucson, Ariz. single family market and determine that the Sold-to-List Price Ratio exceeded 100 percent during the bubble period in 2006, which was indicative of a very frenzied market. The authors also demonstrate that the indicator moves directly with the market itself and can be a useful tool for determining if a market is “hot” as in San Francisco or in “normal” conditions as in Chicago, where the market could transition to heated conditions in the coming year.
This month’s Home Value Forecast update also includes a listing of the 10 best and 10 worst performing metros as ranked by its market condition ranking model. The rankings are run for the single family home markets in the top 200 CBSAs on a monthly basis to highlight the best and worst metros with regard to a number of leading real estate market indicators, including: sales/listing activity and prices, months of remaining inventory (MRI), days on market (DOM), sold-to-list price ratio and foreclosure and REO activity.
“Two of the top markets this month are in Nevada (Las Vegas-Paradise and Reno-Sparks), both of which had been very distressed since their respective market peaks in 2005 and 2006. Also, California continues to be well represented on the list by Los Angeles, Oakland, and Sacramento metros,” said Michael Sklarz, principal of Collateral Analytics and contributing author to Home Value Forecast. “Nashville’s metro area is a new entrant this month. Although the market has a more shallow correction than many of the other markets in the recent recession, it appears to be experiencing improving overall economic conditions and one of the most affordable markets in the U.S. now.”
May’s top CBSAs include:
►Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis.
►Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev.
►Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, Mich.
►Salt Lake City, Utah
►Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif.
“The bottom ranked metros also represent an interesting mix around the U.S. While all have nine to 13 Months of Remaining Inventory, many of the indicators are showing positive trends even for the bottom metros area this month,” said Sklarz.
The bottom CBSAs for May were:
►El Paso, Texas
►Shreveport-Bossier City, La.
►Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, Ark.