Pro Teck Valuation Services' December Home Value Forecast (HVF) update looks back at the housing indicators over the last 12 months in a number of residential real estate categories. These include current sales price, 12-month active list price appreciation, current months of remaining inventory (MRI) and 12-month sales appreciation. This month's update examines the top and bottom three markets for these indicators over the past year.
As part of its December update, Home Value Forecast reported that the top three markets with 12-month active list appreciation were Stockton and Modesto, Calif. and Reno-Sparks, Nev.
"Active price is the median price a home is listing for a moment in time. It's a good reflection of the health of a market because it takes into account market fundamentals as well as people's perceptions as to where prices are headed," said Tom O'Grady, CEO of Pro Teck Valuation Services.
MRI is another indicator that shows how "hot" a market is at a particular time. MRI equals the amount of households on the market divided by the number that sell per month. If an area has a high MRI (10 months), it means that the market is saturated — a buyer's market. If the MRI is low (two to three months) then it becomes a seller's market. As of today, many parts of Washington State and California are seeing some of the nation's lowest levels of inventory.
This month's Home Value Forecast update also includes a listing of the 10 best and 10 worst performing metros as ranked by its market condition ranking model. The rankings are run for the single family home markets in the top 200 CBSAs on a monthly basis. They highlight the best and worst metros with regard to a number of leading real estate market indicators, including: sales/listing activity and prices, months of remaining inventory (MRI), days on market (DOM), sold-to-list price ratio and foreclosure and REO activity.
"The western United States is well represented again, with seven metros from California, as well as Oregon and Washington, in our top 10," added O'Grady. "Foreclosure as a percentage of sales is a very important indicator at Home Value Forecast—as you can see, none of our top 10 metros have more than 10 percent of sales from foreclosure, and most of have seen a 50+percent reduction in the number. Also, housing stock as represented by MRI is between two and five months, indicating a hot market."
December's top CBSAs include:
►Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif.
►San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande, Calif.
►Ann Arbor, Mich.
►Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich.
►Nassau County-Suffolk County, N.Y.
►Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, Calif.
►Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif.
"A new entrant to our bottom 10 is Pueblo, Colo. Pueblo was hit hard by flooding in September, and it's showing in the market. Grand Junction, Colo. also was ranked as a "weak" market, but did not appear in our bottom 10. In all, more than 18,000 homes were damaged and 2,000 destroyed by the flooding in Colorado. We will be watching to see if the effects are seen in other metro markets," said O'Grady. "Separately, as we reported before, when foreclosures represent a significant share of total sales and their discounted prices pull down the prices of non-distressed sales, it is known as the 'contagion effect.' This is continuing to be a factor in our bottom 10 metros this month."
The bottom CBSAs for December were:
►Daytona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla.
►Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Fla.
►Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.
►Port St. Lucie, Fla.
►Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Fla.
►Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, Fla.
►Punta Gorda, Fla.