QM and Rise in Rates Force MBA to Drop 2014 Mortgage Origination Forecast to $1.12 Trillion

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) has lowered its forecast for mortgage originations in 2014 by $57 billion to $1.12 trillion for the year, based on declining mortgage application activity and increasing interest rates. “Despite an economic outlook of steady growth and a recovering job market, mortgage applications have been decreasing— likely due to a combination of rising rates and regulatory implementation, specifically the new Qualified Mortgage (QM) rule,” said Mike Fratantoni, chief economist for MBA. “As a result, we have lowered our expectations for both purchase and refinance originations in the first half of 2014. Purchase originations are now expected to be $677 billion for 2014, compared to $711 billion forecast previously. Compared to 2013, purchase originations are expected to increase by 3.8 percent.” Refinance originations were revised lower as well and are now expected to be $440 billion in 2014, compared to $463 billion estimated previously. The updated refinance total is around 60 percent lower than 2013 refinance originations.