Data through August 2014, released by S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian for the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices showed a slight increase in default rates. The national composite posted 1.03 percent in August, up two basis points from last month’s historical low. After nine consecutive months of decline, the first mortgage default rate rose to 0.91 percent. The auto loan default rate also rose; it was posted at one percent in August. The bank card rate declined 13 basis points to 2.73 percent.
“With the recent and continued growth in the economy, sales of automobiles and existing homes have gained since the start of the year,” said David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee for S&P Dow Jones Indices. “These factors may be leading to more borrowing and modest increases in default rates. No return to the extreme default experience of a few years ago is imminent."
The table below summarizes the August 2014 results for the S&P/Experian Credit Default Indices. These data sets are not seasonally adjusted and are not subject to revision:
“Consumer credit default rates rose for the first time since September 2013. Default rates are just above last month’s historical lows," continued Blitzer. "Auto and first mortgage showed slight increases while bank card continues to trend down. The second mortgage default rate dropped one basis point to a new historical low of 0.51 percent."
The table below provides the S&P/Experian Consumer Default Composite Indices for the five MSAs:
“Chicago and Dallas saw their default rates remain unchanged at 1.17 percent and 0.80 percent. New York posted 1.07 percent, its lowest default rate since July 2006," noted Blitzer. "Miami saw its rate decrease to its lowest since August 2006, but still posted the highest default rate of 1.45 percent. Los Angeles was the only city to see its rate increase and continues to maintain the lowest default rate. All five cities—Chicago, Dallas, Los Angeles, Miami and New York—remain below default rates seen a year ago.”