Dueling Data Reports Offer Contradictory Housing Views – NMP Skip to main content

Dueling Data Reports Offer Contradictory Housing Views

Sep 26, 2018
Do you agree with me that today’s housing supply has narrowed, and mortgage demand is uncertain

Two new data reports are offering very different views of the housing market, with one pointing to increased sales and another calling out stagnant demand.
 
Sales of new single-family houses in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 629,000, according to estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This represents a 3.5 percent increase from the revised July rate of 608,000 and a 12.7 percent rise above the August 2017 estimate of 558,000.
 
The median sales price of new houses sold in August was $320,200 and the average sales price was $388,400. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 318,000, which represents a supply of 6.1 months at the current sales rate.
 
However, the latest the Redfin Housing Demand Index continued the four-month trend of static activity, with new data finding the index barely rising 0.3 percent from July to 125.2 in August. On an annualized measurement, the Demand Index is down 11.9 percent.
 
Redfin added that the number of homebuyers requesting tours fell 3.5 percent year-over-year in August, the third consecutive month of annual declines. The number of homebuyers making offers dropped 20.2 percent from August 2017, the sharpest annual decline since March 2016.
 
"The housing market is past the heydays of spring and early summer, when most homes received multiple offers from buyers desperate to get a home under contract," said Taylor Marr, Redfin Senior Economist. "Several factors are contributing to stalling demand. Tax reform and higher home prices are causing homebuyers to be more careful about their decision-making. Meanwhile buyers on the West Coast are finding that a growing supply of homes can work in their favor, enabling them to be more selective and make less aggressive offers. While overall demand still remains strong, easing inventory pressure is allowing homebuyers to be more careful in their purchases."
 
Genworth Mortgage Insurance Chief Economist Tian Liu added, “The strong shift in housing demand towards owner-occupied housing will continue to underpin new home sales because that demand must ultimately result in higher housing construction and sales of new homes. However, that demand is currently being weakened by rising interest rates and rising home prices on existing homes. This provides an opportunity for homebuilders to expand sales provided they can find workers and maintain cost control.”

 
About the author
Published
Sep 26, 2018
CHLA: More Freddie Mac MBS Buying Could Narrow Mortgage Spreads

Trade group estimates greater Freddie participation could compress spreads another 10 to 12 basis points as Fannie has taken the lead in GSE mortgage-bond buying

Sep 23, 2026
Early Loan-Limit Race Splits Into Three Tiers

Lenders are now offering $845,000, $847,440, or $850,000 before FHFA sets the official 2027 limits

Sep 23, 2026
Better, Garg Clash Over Claimed 46% Shareholder Support

Better disputes its former CEO’s preliminary consent count as the two sides trade accusations and an Oct. 2 target date approaches

Sep 23, 2026
Fannie Changes How Rent From A Former Home Counts

Fannie now prohibits leases for departing residences and permits market-analysis tools instead of Form 1007, creating a key documentation difference from Freddie Mac

MPF Expands Eligibility For Manufactured And Renovation Loans

The Mortgage Partnership Finance Program has expanded MPF Traditional eligibility for affordable loans, manufactured homes, renovations, and lender-funded assistance

Sep 22, 2026