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Commercial and Multifamily Origination Forecast to Rise

Phil Hall
Nov 08, 2018
The delinquency rate for US commercial real estate loans in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) reached 3.33 percent in November

Commercial and multifamily origination levels should wrap up 2018 at a level slightly above last year’s record activity, according to new data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
 
With less than two months remaining in the year, the MBA is forecasting $532 billion in commercial and multifamily mortgage originations, up from last year’s volume of $530 billion. Mortgage banker originations of multifamily mortgages alone are pointing to a 7 percent increase this year to $251 billion, with total multifamily lending at $302 billion. The MBA added that commercial and multifamily mortgage debt outstanding is expected to continue to grow 6 percent from one year ago, while multifamily lending is expected to rise two percent in 2019.
 
"Commercial real estate finance markets are on pace to match last year’s record volumes of borrowing and lending," said Jamie Woodwell, MBA's Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research. "Property incomes and values continue to grow, albeit at slower paces than previous years, and the amount of capital looking to be placed in real estate and debt remains robust. We anticipate that much of the momentum seen this year will carry on into 2019.”
 
Commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding is expected to continue to grow in 2018, ending the year more than six percent higher than last year.

 
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