New Reports Seek to Predict Housing’s Near-Future

A pair of new reports are offering distinctive views of the housing market’s horizon.

 

Redfin has issued a forecast that promises a more competitive market in 2020 fueled by a rebound in bidding wars and a continued lack of new homes, coupled with fewer homeowners selling and mortgage rates that will hover around 3.8 percent. Redfin also predicted that Hispanic Americans will gain more wealth from home equity than white Americans for the first time since this data has been tracked.

 

"Low mortgage rates started to revitalize the market at the end of this summer, but we won't see their full impact on demand for housing until next year," said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather, who authored the report. "In 2020, buyers will have fewer homes to choose from than they have in five years. But the return of bidding wars is good news for sellers who may have been holding out this year as the market stabilized. The competition and faster price growth will tempt more homeowners and builders to list homes, which will help improve the balance between supply and demand by the end of the year."

 

Separately, Zillow is forecasting a “Silver Tsunami” of properties flooding the housing market over the next 20 years as Baby Boomers age. Zillow noted that during the decade from 2007-2017, roughly 730,000 homes were released into the market each year by seniors aged 60 or older. But from 2017-2027 and from 2027-2037, Zillow estimated that number will rise to 920,000 and 1.17 million per year, respectively, which means more than 27 percent of today's owner-occupied homes will become available by 2037.

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