After a three-month decline, consumer confidence slightly improved in May, with the U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rising to 102 from April’s 97.5. Despite this, concerns about an impending recession rose among those surveyed.
Consumers' assessment of current business conditions was slightly less positive than last month, according to Dana Peterson, chief economist at the non-profit Conference Board. But, the strong labor market continued to bolster consumers' overall assessment of current conditions.
"Views of current labor market conditions improved in May, as fewer respondents said jobs were ‘hard to get,’ which outweighed a slight decline in the number who said jobs were ‘plentiful.’ Looking ahead, fewer consumers expected deterioration in future business conditions, job availability, and income, resulting in an increase in the Expectation Index. Nonetheless, the overall confidence gauge remained within the relatively narrow range it has been hovering in for more than two years," Peterson said.
The Present Situation Index — based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions — increased to 143.1 in May from 140.6 in April.
The Expectations Index rose to 74.6 from 68.8 last month. Despite this improvement, this particular index has been below 80 for four consecutive months, the threshold which usually signals a recession ahead.
Plans for purchasing homes remained at their lowest level since August 2012, unchanged in May from their six-month moving average basis. On the other hand, more consumers indicated they were planning to buy cars and big-ticket appliances.
The indices showed confidence improving among consumers of all age groups in May, with the largest rise in confidence expressed by those earning at least $100K in yearly income.
In her analysis Peterson cited May’s write-in responses from consumers, who generally agreed that prices of items – food, especially – had the greatest impact on their view of the U.S. economy.
“Notably, average 12-month inflation expectations ticked up from 5.3 percent to 5.4 percent,” she pointed out. “Perhaps as a consequence, the share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the year ahead also rose, from 55.2 percent to 56.2 percent…The survey also revealed a possible resurgence in recession concerns. The perceived likelihood of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months rose again in May, with more consumers believing recession is ‘somewhat likely’ or ‘very likely’."
