Hispanics Poised To Be 70% Of U.S. Homebuying by 2040
Younger Hispanic homebuyers grapple with high prices and denial rates, yet remain optimistic about dominating the housing market future.
New data from CoreLogic indicates that the Hispanic community will make up over two-thirds of the homebuying populace by 2040. While the Urban Institute predicts that approximately 70% of all new homeowners will be Hispanic by that time, the current landscape paints a challenging picture for these potential homeowners due to skyrocketing home prices and interest rates.
Hispanic homebuyers are noticeably younger than their non-Hispanic counterparts. CoreLogic said 2022 data revealed that 40% of Hispanic homebuyers were under 35, as opposed to 36% of non-Hispanic homebuyers. This age bracket, brimming with first-time homebuyers (FTHBs), often grapples with limited savings, potentially limiting their ability to enter the market.
Majority-Hispanic areas, defined as census tracts with over half of their population being Hispanic or Latino, have seen a rise in their share of all first-lien home purchase loan originations. Based on the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) and CoreLogic public records, the share of home loans in these areas increased from 6.6% in 2022 to 6.8% in 2023.
These majority-Hispanic areas appear to lean towards Federal Housing Administration (FHA) insured loans, typically popular among low-income and high-minority areas, more than conventional loans. So far, in 2023, there has been a slight uptick in the share of both FHA and conventional loans in these regions.
However, a disparity arises when assessing denial rates between Hispanic and non-Hispanic borrowers. In 2022, Hispanic borrowers faced a 13% denial rate for home-purchase loans, 4 percentage points higher than the 9% rate faced by non-Hispanic borrowers. The primary denial reason is a high debt-to-income ratio, notably 3 percentage points greater among Hispanic applicants.
Despite the hurdles, optimism abounds for the Hispanic community's role in the housing market. With the Hispanic demographic being one of the fastest-growing in the U.S., the FTHB share is set to rise in the coming years, especially as the majority of this community approaches the average age for first-time homebuyers.