Skip to main content

What Recession? Revised 3Q GDP Rose 2.9%

Sarah Wolak
Nov 30, 2022
BEA 3Q Second GDP Estimate

The Bureau of Economic Analysis' original estimate was 2.6%.

KEY TAKEAWAYS
  • The data was released the same day Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks on the U.S. economy and labor market at the Brookings Institution.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.9% in the third quarter of 2022, according to the second estimate released Wednesday by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), in stark contrast to some observers who say the U.S. economy is in a recession.

In the second quarter, real GDP decreased by 0.6%. In general, a recession is described as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.

The second estimate is based on more complete source data than was available for the advance estimate issued last month, the BEA said. In the advance estimate, the annual increase in real GDP was estimated to be 2.6%. 

The data was released the same day that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak on the U.S. economy and labor market at the Brookings Institution at 1:30 p.m. EST.

The BEA said the second estimate “primarily reflects upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment.” Overall, the increase reflects increases in exports, consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and federal government spending, it said.

Current‑dollar GDP increased 7.3% at an annual rate, or $450.5 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $25.7 trillion. That marks an upward revision of $35.7 billion from the previous estimate.

Within the realm of nonresidential fixed investment, increases in equipment and intellectual property products were partly offset by a decrease in structures. However, residential fixed investments saw a decrease, mainly led by new single-family construction and brokers' commissions. Private inventory investments also saw a decrease, mainly prompted by retail trade. 

The second estimate of third-quarter GDP also follows a report from the U.S. Bureau of Statistics (BLS) earlier this month, which said the consumer price index rose 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis in October from a month earlier, matching the increase in September. That report prompted some economists to say inflation may have peaked.

All of this data, plus the November employment report — to be released on Friday — will be weighed by Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee as it continues its efforts to reduce inflation.

 

Published
Nov 30, 2022
FICO Increases 400% For Tier 3 Lenders

Finding solutions in soft pull credit reports

Analysis and Data
Jan 27, 2023
NAR: Pending Home Sales Rose In December

Redfin report also shows year-over-year improvement.

Analysis and Data
Jan 27, 2023
Mortgage Rates Fall For 3rd Straight Week

Freddie Mac says lower rates are attracting more buyers to the market.

Analysis and Data
Jan 26, 2023
New Home Sales End Down Year On Up Note

For all of 2022, sales of new homes fell 16.4%.

Analysis and Data
Jan 26, 2023
Mortgage Application Payments Fell 2.9% In December

The median payment fell to $1,920 in December from $1,977 in November. 

Analysis and Data
Jan 26, 2023
ATTOM: Home-Seller Profits Top 50% In 2022

Profits on typical sales increase between 45% and 51% nationwide.

Analysis and Data
Jan 26, 2023