Powell’s Final Meeting: Rates at Risk?

Mortgage markets are shifting gears — from volatility to potential complacency — but risks remain front and center. In this week’s Master the Markets, host and expert Bill Bodnar explains why rates have ticked higher off their best levels and how ongoing geopolitical tensions with Iran and elevated energy prices continue to drive uncertainty.
Now, all eyes turn to a major milestone: Jerome Powell’s final Fed meeting. Bill highlights what mortgage professionals should watch for — a possible “soft handoff” moment where the Fed reinforces that inflation expectations remain anchored, a key message that previously helped push rates lower. If that tone returns, it could provide support for bonds and mortgage pricing.
But the week doesn’t stop there. Markets will also digest Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) and GDP data, both of which could shift expectations around inflation and growth. Meanwhile, technical signals are flashing caution, including a potential “death cross” pattern in mortgage markets — a bearish indicator that traders are watching closely.