Powell’s Final Week: Rates Face Resistance

The bond market may have stabilized last week, but mortgage professionals shouldn’t get too comfortable yet. In this week’s Master the Markets, host and expert Bill Bodnar explains why bonds experienced a modest rebound from the worst rate levels in over a month — while warning that major technical resistance still hangs over mortgage-backed securities.
Bill describes a “cloud” of price resistance sitting above the market, limiting further gains for mortgage pricing. At the same time, unresolved geopolitical tensions involving Iran continue to support elevated oil prices, a key inflation driver that historically moves closely with 30-year mortgage rates. As long as energy prices remain elevated, mortgage rates may struggle to improve meaningfully.
There’s also a historic transition underway at the Federal Reserve. This marks the final week of Jerome Powell’s tenure as Fed Chair, with leadership set to pass to a new era beginning Friday. Markets are already watching closely for what that shift could mean for rate policy and volatility moving forward.