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Freddie Mac CMHPI: Home prices rise 1.7 percent in Q2 of 2009

NationalMortgageProfessional.com
Sep 01, 2009

Freddie Mac announced that its Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index (CMHPI) Purchase-Only Series registered a 1.7 percent quarterly gain (7.0 percent annualized) during the second quarter 2009 for the U.S., following a downward revised 1.5 percent drop (–5.9 percent annualized) in the first quarter. Over the year ending with the second quarter of 2009, U.S. home sales prices fell 6.7 percent in the CMHPI Purchase-Only Series--less than the 8.5 percent annual decline recorded between the first quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008. “The pickup in home price growth rates is consistent with other housing market indicators that show home sales and single-family construction up in the second quarter,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. “The lowest mortgage rates in a half-century have pushed housing affordability to the highest level in at least 40 years, helping to encourage buying. The spring is generally the strongest buying season each year, and we normally see home price growth respond similarly--this year was no exception. Moreover, the price gains were broad-based and for the first time in two years average home sales values rose at least a little bit in every region. “Values are still down relative to their peaks, though. For example, as measured by the CMHPI, average values in the New England, East North Central and Pacific divisions are at 2004 levels, on average. In contrast, the average value in the West South Central area is only slightly below its 2008 peak, while the index for the East South Central region is at about its 2006 level. Other areas have home-purchase values at 2005 levels.” The CMHPI Purchase-Only Series excludes all refinancings in its calculation. Freddie Mac also produces a CMHPI Classic Series that includes data from both home purchase transactions and mortgage refinancings, with the latter values based on appraisals. Generally, because appraisals are backwards looking through the use of recent comparable property transactions, the Classic Series will typically lag changes in the Purchase-Only series. The CMHPI Classic Series indicated that over the year ending with the second quarter, home values depreciated 4.5 percent in the U.S. measure, a steeper drop than the 3.9 percent decline over the year ending in the first quarter of 2008. The CMHPI Purchase-Only Series had the following regional house-price changes: Pacific Division (AK, CA, HI, OR, WA): jumped up 3.2 percent 13.4 percent, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 15.7 percent, and during the last five years, home values have decreased 5.1 percent. West North Central Division (IA, KS, MN, MO, ND, NE, SD): increased 2.3 percent (9.7, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 2.4 percent; over the last five years, home values increased 6.1 percent. East North Central Division (IL, IN, MI, OH, WI): rose 2.0 percent (8.4 percent, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 3.9 percent, and during the last five years, home values decreased 1.3 percent. West South Central Division (AR, LA, OK, TX): grew 1.6 percent (6.5 percent, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 0.3 percent, and during the last five years, home values increased 21.2 percent. East South Central Division (AL, KY, MS, TN): increased 1.6 percent (6.5 percent, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 2.9 percent, and during the last five years, home values increased 17.0 percent. South Atlantic Division (DC, DE, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV): rose 1.4 percent (5.9 percent, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 7.9 percent, and during the last five years, home values increased 10.6 percent. Mountain Division (AZ, CO, ID, MT, NM, NV, UT, WY): grew 0.7 percent (2.9 percent, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. In the last 12 months, home values decreased 11.0 percent; during the last five years, home values increased 12.0 percent. Middle Atlantic Division (NJ, NY, PA): increased 0.6 percent (2.6 percent, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 3.7 percent, and during the last five years, home values increased 18.0 percent. New England Division (CT, MA, ME, NH, RI, VT): increased 0.5 percent (1.9 percent, annualized) in the second quarter of 2009. Over the last 12 months, home values decreased 3.2 percent, and during the last five years, home values increased 2.2 percent. Unlike other home price indexes based on mean or median values of homes sold during a given period, the Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index is constructed, using regression techniques, from observations of actual sales prices or appraised values of the same homes over time. The street addresses of properties that serve as collateral for mortgages funded by the two secondary mortgage market firms are processed using software certified by the United States Postal Service to create a uniform address format and are then matched to identify consecutive transactions on the same property. There are currently more than 41.3 million records in the repeat-transactions database used to construct the classic Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index – this database includes transactions on one-unit detached and single-family townhome properties serving as collateral on loans originated through the second quarter of 2009 and purchased by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae by July 31, 2009. Freddie Mac publishes the Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index each quarter. Index values and growth rates for the nation as a whole as well as for the nine Census divisions, the 50 states and the District of Columbia, and 392 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and metropolitan divisions under the classic series of the CMHPI are available and the purchase-transaction only series is available for the nation and nine Census divisions. All of the CMHPI series can be found on Freddie Mac’s web site, www.freddiemac.com/finance/cmhpi/.
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