Integrated Asset Services LLC (IAS), a provider of default management and residential collateral valuations, has released the latest IAS360 House Price Index (HPI). Based upon the most granular data available in the industry, the index fell 0.8 percent during the fourth-quarter of 2010. For the year, the benchmark for national house prices gained 0.9 percent, mostly all the result of a boost from the government's homebuyer tax credits across the first and second quarters.
Year-end IAS360 HPI data, meanwhile, show that three of the nation's four census regions and six of its nine census divisions lost ground over the last three months of 2010. Only the South, which includes some of the nation's hardest-hit areas, turned positive for the period. The IAS report of the nation's hardest-hit counties indicated marked improvement in Florida, where Charlotte and Pasco counties actually registered significant gains.
Among the country's largest metro regions, only Miami, with a 1.22 percent gain, was positive for the quarter. Boston; Chicago; Los Angeles; New York; San Francisco and Washington, D.C. all declined more than three percent for the last three months of 2010.
"While the bleeding in some of Florida's bubble markets may have slowed, we can't pretend the housing crisis is anywhere near over," said Ryan Tomazin, president of IAS, provider of the IAS360 HPI. "The problems in the U.S. housing market are well known, and I believe the ultimate recovery will take a long time to play out."
One hopeful sign for real estate arrived in a report from the Conference Board, a New York-based private research group, that showed consumer confidence in January climbed to its highest level in eight months as Americans became more optimistic about job prospects. Moreover, the share of people who said they intended to buy a home rose to 2.2 percent, the second consecutive gain after November's 1.7 percent, which matched an all-time low. The question remains, however, whether an improving consumer outlook will be offset by the drag from rising mortgage rates and the glut of distressed properties for sale. Many believe the enormous supply overhang of existing homes, particularly when considering all those in or soon to be in foreclosure, promises to keep pressure on prices for some time.
"Given the surge of loan defaults and foreclosures, the big picture, unfortunately enough, remains pretty familiar," said Tomazin. "America simply has an excess supply of homes on the market. The continuing problems in the California markets are proof to that point."
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