Strong November Housing Performance Threatened by Fiscal Cliff

For most measures of housing performance, November was another positive month, according to the monthly Property Intelligence Report (PIR) from DataQuick, a provider of real estate information solutions powered by data, analytics and decisioning. “While there is evidence that a recovery in housing is underway nationally, the strength of the housing market varies across the country,” said Gordon Crawford, Ph.D., vice president of analytics for DataQuick. “In comparison to prior reports, we see that home price growth and foreclosure performance improved, while sales performance worsened.” DataQuick’s PIR measures housing performance through valuation, real estate-owned (REO) inventory and sales trends in one month as well as the previous 12 for 42 of the nation’s largest counties. Key findings for November include: ►Home price growth was positive in 41 of the 42 reported counties over the last month. ►Home price growth was positive in all 42 reported counties over the last quarter and year. ►Sales increased in 13 of the 42 reported counties over the last month. ►Sales increased in 7 of the 42 reported counties over the last quarter. ►Sales increased in 25 of the 42 reported counties over the last year. ►Foreclosures declined in 24 of the 42 reported counties over the last month. ►Foreclosures declined in 20 of the 42 reported counties over the last quarter. ►Foreclosures declined in 29 of the 42 reported counties over the last year. Although the data tells an overall positive story, Crawford cautions mortgage lenders and investors to focus on factors that may lead to further home price decline or dampen home price growth, such as the possible effect of the fiscal cliff, decreases in federal—specifically defense—spending, tax increases, shadow inventory and negative equity. “One area of continuing concern is Florida’s Gulf Coast housing market,” said Crawford. “While recent home price growth has been positive, the substantial increase in foreclosure rates threatens future home price growth as foreclosed properties hit the market.”