iEmergent, a Des Moines, Iowa-based market research, forecasting and advisory services firm for the financial services, mortgage and real estate industries, issued its Mortgage Volume Forecasts for 20092013, including its Market Behavior Metrics tables, in order to provide lenders details on the size, density and speed of growth of mortgage lending opportunities.
The forecasts provide lending details regarding expected loan volumes at the national, state, county and local community levels. They also provide lenders data needed to assess mortgage lending opportunities, develop business strategies, make growth decisions and estimate the strengths and weaknesses of their current positions in distinct markets. iEmergents comprehensive forecast tables can be configured in any combination of markets to represent the markets of interest to any type or size of mortgage lender.
Highlights of the forecasts for 2009 illustrating potential market share and home financing opportunities for lenders include:
" Total purchase volume: 4.29 million loans for $707.7 billion
Refinance volume range:
" Low: 3.29 million loans for $575 billion
" High: 3.66 million loans for $640 billion
Total mortgage volume:
" Low: 7.58 million loans for $1.283 trillion
" High: 7.95 million loans for $1.348 trillion
The 2009 forecast represents another five percent slide in volume from current 2008 end-of-year estimates. The local impact varies widely as lending trends continue to undergo significant shifts in many individual markets while remaining solid and stable in others.
The forecasts and data tables offer details on iEmergent's estimate that purchase mortgage lending volumes will bottom out in late 2009, but the rates at which individual markets generate purchase mortgages will dip to levels not seen since the early 1990s and are not expected to recover long-term historical trends until 2012.
"We expect the total volume to reach the bottom in 2009 and turn upward in 2010, but lenders should be prepared for volumes in many of their local markets and communities to drop even further if the recession deepens, unemployment levels continue to rise, home prices fail to stabilize and consumer confidence remains dismal. Periods of increased uncertainty and volatility are precisely the times to become more focused on local market dynamics, not less," said Dennis Hedlund, president of iEmergent. "4.3 million purchase loans and 7.5 million total mortgage transactions or more is not a total collapse. Lenders have had plenty of time the past 24 months to look inward and re-structure, reduce costs and improve their efficiency to match the new reality. Now it is time for them to look outward and tailor their lending strategies to the local markets where they need to compete effectively. Reaching, attracting and capturing homebuyers requires more than personal intuition or knowing the last two quarters loan counts. Knowing and anticipating how the size, density and long-term growth rates of the lending opportunities in local communities and homebuyer segments are likely to change in the future will be crucial if they expect to improve profit performance and sustain their growth during these challenging times."
For more information, visit www.iemergent.com.