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CoreLogic has released its February 2015 CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) which shows that home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased by 5.6 percent in February 2015 compared to February 2014. This change represents three years of consecutive year-over-year increases in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased by 1.1 percent in February 2015 compared to January 2015.
Including distressed sales, 26 states and the District of Columbia were at or within 10 percent of their peak prices. Six states, including Colorado (+9.8 percent), New York (+8.2 percent), North Dakota (+7.7 percent), Texas (+8.5 percent), Wyoming (+8.4 percent) and Oklahoma (+5.2 percent), reached new home price highs since January 1976 when the CoreLogic HPI started.
Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased by 5.8 percent in February 2015 compared to February 2014 and increased by 1.5 percent month over month compared to January 2015. Also excluding distressed sales, all states and the District of Columbia showed year-over-year home price appreciation in February. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate-owned (REO) transactions.
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices, including distressed sales, are projected to increase by 0.6 percent month over month from February 2015 to March 2015 and on a year-over-year basis by 5.1 percent from February 2015 to February 2016. Excluding distressed sales, home prices are expected to increase by 0.5 percent month over month from February 2015 to March 2015 and by 4.8 percent year over year from February 2015 to February 2016. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.
“Since the second half of 2014, the dwindling supply of affordable inventory has led to stabilization in home price growth with a particular uptick in low-end home price growth over the last few months,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “From February 2014 to February 2015, low-end home prices increased by 9.3 percent compared to 4.8 percent for high-end home prices, a gap that is three times the average historical difference.”
“This is the hottest home price appreciation prior to the spring selling season in nine years,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Assuming a benign interest rate environment and continued strong consumer confidence, we expect home prices to rise by an additional five percent over the next 12 months.”
Highlights as of February 2015:
►Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Colorado (+9.8 percent), South Carolina (+9.3), Michigan (+8.5 percent), Texas (+8.5 percent) and Wyoming (+8.4 percent).
►Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: South Carolina (+9.7 percent), New York (+9.2 percent), Colorado (+9 percent), Texas (+7.9 percent) and Florida (+7.8 percent).
►Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to February 2015) was -12.2 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change for the same period was -7.8 percent.
►Including distressed sales, only Connecticut at -0.9 percent experienced a decline in home prices.
►The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were: Nevada (-35.4 percent), Florida (-32.4 percent), Rhode Island (-29.6 percent), Arizona (-28.4 percent) and Connecticut (-24.7 percent).
►Including distressed sales, the U.S. has experienced 36 consecutive months of year-over-year increases.
►Ninety-two of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-year increases in January 2015. The eight CBSAs that showed year-over-year declines were: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md.; Philadelphia, Pa.; Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn.; New Orleans-Metairie, La.; Rochester, N.Y.; Worcester, Ma.-Conn..; Albany-Schenectady-Troy, N.Y.; and New Haven-Milford, Conn.