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New data presented by the real estate brokerage Redfin is claiming that condo sales on properties bearing the Trump brand appear to have experienced a negative impact since Donald Trump entered the 2016 presidential race—but can that be solely blamed on politics?
Redfin measured sales from the first half of 2015 (prior to Trump’s surprise candidacy announcement) versus the first half of 2016. In working with a proprietary data analysis model that measured a sample of Trump condo sales versus sales of nearby similar units, it determined that Trump units had a sale price premium of 6.8 percent compared with similar homes in the first half of 2015 but had not exhibited a sale price premium one year later. Furthermore, Redfin found that Trump units sold at a premium of nine percent—or $97 compared with similar units—in 2015, but the effect “became insignificant” this year.
Also, Redfin stated that while Trump condos asked for 1.6 percent more than they eventually sold for compared to similar homes last year, there was no significant difference this year. One area where there was no marked change involved the amount of days on the market: 10 days in 2015 compared to 19 in 2016.
However, Redfin Chief Economist Nela Richardson insisted that this should not be seen as a partisan rejection of the Trump-branded condo market.
“Trump condos have lost the price advantage they enjoyed before the campaign and are starting to sell similarly to comparable condos,” said Richardson. “While it’s tempting to blame politics, it’s likely that market conditions have changed, making it harder for uber-luxurious condos to fetch top dollar. The luxury market has been fighting a chill since late last year and even the gold-plated faucets in Trump’s bathrooms can’t overcome a slowdown in demand from wealthy buyers caused by the rocky global markets in 2016.”
Also, Redfin’s analysis was limited to sales in nine locations with Trump-branded condos, ranging from the luxurious Honolulu housing to a decidedly grittier housing environment in New Rochelle, N.Y. Multiple-listing data was unavailable for transactions of Trump properties in Manhattan, Stamford, Conn., and outside of the U.S.