Skip to main content

Real Estate Economists Forecast Next Recession

Phil Hall
Jul 25, 2019
Photo credit: Getty Images/Gearstd

The nation’s post-2008 economic expansion period will likely end with a recession in either 2020 or 2021, according to a survey of 100 real estate economists and esports polled in the Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey conducted by Pulsenomics LLC.
Half of the surveyed respondents said the next recession will start in 2020, with 19 percent predicting it will begin during the third quarter. However, another 35 percent of respondents believed the recession will not take place until 2021.
As for the causes of the next recession, the respondents believed trade policy, a stock market correction and geopolitical crisis were the most likely reasons for an economic reversal. Only 12 respondents believed a housing slowdown would be among the triggers for a new recession.
And on the subject of housing, just over half of the respondents expected homebuying demand to be somewhat or significantly lower in 2020 compared with 2019, while only 17 percent believed it would increase.
"More than any other factor with the potential to impact homebuying demand through 2020, mortgage rates are viewed by our expert panel to be most significant," said Pulsenomics Founder Terry Loebs, who added the weakening of mortgage rates “is a temporary dip, and that homebuying demand through next year will be dampened by other, more persistent factors that affect affordability, such as constrained inventory and the growth of house prices relative to wages.”

Jul 25, 2019
Rocket Launches Visa Signature Card

Rocket says its first-of-its kind credit card will help clients save on home purchases and homeowners pay off mortgages.

Guild Mortgage Acquires Cherry Creek Mortgage

Terms of purchase not disclosed; reverse mortgage volume added to Guild.

Mar 14, 2023
Vigilance, Dedication, And Commitment Forge Legends

Submit a nomination for Mortgage Banker Magazine’s Legends of Lending.

Mar 10, 2023
FTC Moves To Block Black Knight, ICE Merger

Says it 'would drive up costs, reduce innovation, and reduce lenders’ choices.'

Mar 09, 2023
Rocket Arms Brokers With Bully Shield Vs. UWM

Rocket covers penalties and court fees for brokers who want to get out of United Wholesale Mortgage’s ultimatum contract. 

Feb 06, 2023
Top Texas Originator Sees No Surrender To 2023

Big cities will determine the battle

Jan 26, 2023