Skip to main content

MBA Forecasts $1.29T in 2020 Purchase Originations

Phil Hall
Oct 29, 2019
Photo credit: Getty Images/marchmeena29

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is predicting a 1.6 percent increase in purchase originations during 2020 to $1.29 trillion and a 24.5 percent drop in refinance originations to $599 billion over the same period.
In a forecast released today during its 2019 annual convention in Austin, the MBA also predicted that mortgage originations will total around $2.06 trillion this year, the highest since 2007’s $2.31 trillion mark, but will drop to around $1.89 trillion in 2020. In 2021, MBA predicted purchase originations to total around $1.33 trillion and refinance originations to reach $432 billion.
“Interest rates will, on average, remain lower for longer given the somewhat cloudy economic outlook,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist and senior vice president for research and industry technology. “These lower rates will in turn support both purchase and refinance origination volume in 2020. Lower-than-expected mortgage rates gave the refinance market a significant boost this year, resulting in it being the strongest year of volume since 2016. Given the capacity constraints in the industry, some of this refinance activity will spill into the first half of next year.”
The drop in refinancing should occur in the second half of next year, Fratantoni added, warning that this could spur a reprise of the margin pressures many mortgage companies faced in 2018.
“The industry continues to be challenged by elevated costs, and as we saw in 2018, the mortgage market is quite competitive. Revenues fall when lenders are chasing fewer loans,” said Fratantoni.
Fratantoni also expected the Federal Reserve will cut rates one more time before the end of this year and then hold at that level until the economy resumes growth at a faster pace. He anticipated that the 10-year Treasury rate reach 1.9 percent next year, which will cause the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate to rise to around four percent.

Fifth Third Bank Expands Down Payment Assistance Program

The program will provide up to $3,600 towards a down payment for families with low to moderate income.

Industry News
Jun 09, 2021
Filo Mortgage Launches Low-Rate Guarantee

National mortgage lender Filo Mortgage is offering to beat competitors' pricing by $1,000 with its Low-Rate Guarantee.

Industry News
Jun 08, 2021
FAU Index Shows Where Consumers Should Buy Or Rent

Consumers are better off renting in cities like Dallas, Texas

Industry News
Jun 07, 2021
Verus Title Inc. Expands Into Dallas-Fort Worth Texas

Verus plans to take advantage of the Dallas-Fort Worth market before expanding throughout the state.

Jun 07, 2021
Freddie Mac Multifamily Extends Forbearance Deadline To September

Freddie Mac Multifamily extended the deadline for requesting a new COVID-19 forbearance agreement for its Multifamily loans to September 30, 2021.

Industry News
Jun 04, 2021
Fannie Mae Launches 'Your Own Story' To Educate Future Homebuyers

Fannie Mae is seeking to help demystify the homebuying process for future homeowners with “Your Own Story.” A new campaign to educate future homebuyers on the entire process.

Industry News
Jun 04, 2021
Mike Eshelman
Jun 01, 2021
Two women having a conversation
May 27, 2021