Between 2020 and 2022, TransUnion is predicting at least 8.3 million first-time homebuyers will enter the mortgage market between 2020 and 2022, and that number could climb to as high as 9.2 million if economic growth exceeds expectations. This could be a significant jolt to the market, as TransUnion observed there were 68.3 million consumers carrying a mortgage balance in the second quarter of this year, on par with the 68.2 million observed one year earlier and much lower than the 73.1 million consumers carrying a mortgage balance in the second quarter of 2010.
“While we’ve recently seen a boom in refi activity, actual homeownership rates are down. Challenges have included high home prices, sluggish wage growth and limited housing inventory,” said Joe Mellman, senior vice president and mortgage business leader at TransUnion. “But we may be starting to see daylight as slowing home price appreciation, low unemployment, increased wage growth and low interest rates are helping affordability. As a result, we are optimistic that first-time homebuyers will contribute more to home ownership than at any time since the start of the Great Recession.”