Outlook Improves For Mortgage Lenders’ Profit

Mortgage lenders’ profit margin outlook for the next three months increased even further due to strong consumer demand, according to Fannie Mae’s Q3 2020 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey. The survey says 48% of lenders believe profit margins will increase compared to the prior quarter, building on an already strong profit margin outlook, while 37% believe profits will remain the same and 15% believe profits will decrease.

 

Reported consumer demand remained strong in the third quarter across all loan types, and in many cases neared or reached new highs. Lenders reporting purchase mortgage demand growth for both the prior three months and the next three months rose significantly from last quarter across all loan types (i.e., GSE-eligible, non-GSE-eligible, and government) and is back on par with the same time last year.

 

Similarly, according to lenders, refinance mortgage demand remained extremely strong in the third quarter across all loan types on both a look-back and look-forward basis. On net, lenders also reported a further tightening of credit standards over the prior three months and expect them to remain largely the same over the next three months.

 

“This quarter’s [survey] results align with the strong housing recovery amid the larger economic downturn due to COVID-19,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae senior vice president and chief economist. “Lenders’ reported purchase mortgage demand for the prior three months across all loan types have returned from sharp drops to the levels seen last year for the same quarter.

 

“Purchase demand growth expectations for the next three months reached the highest third-quarter readings since survey inception. For the third consecutive quarter, lenders' profitability outlook has remained a strong positive. Pent-up consumer demand, continued low mortgage rates, and favorable mortgage spreads helped drive lender profitability.”

 

“This quarter, lenders on net continue to report tightening of credit standards for the prior three months, but expected no further tightening next quarter,” Duncan continued. “Lenders attributed credit tightening to the uncertainty on the economic recovery and labor markets resulting from COVID-19. Although the housing market is showing remarkable strength amid the economic and health crisis, potential longer-term downside risks remain, including labor market weakness, low inventory, and home price uncertainty."

 

 

 

 

The Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey by Fannie Mae polls senior executives of its lending institution customers on a quarterly basis to assess their views and outlook across varied dimensions of the mortgage market. The Fannie Mae third quarter 2020 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey was conducted between Aug. 4, 2020 and Aug. 16, 2020 by PSB in coordination with Fannie Mae. For detailed findings from the third quarter 2020 survey, as well as survey questionnaires and other supporting documents, visit the Fannie Mae Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey page. Also available on the site are special topic analyses, which focus on findings and analyses of important industry topics.