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Early Voters Flag U.S. Economy As Top Issue

Associate Editor
Nov 04, 2024

More Americans think mortgage rates will fall if Trump wins

The economy and inflation were top issues for Americans who cast their vote for presidential front runners Donald Trump and Kamala Harris early this year. 

A new report based on a Redfin-commissioned survey of 1,002 adults who voted as of Nov. 1 indicated that just under two in five (38%) people say housing affordability impacted their presidential pick. 

Harris voters were more likely (43%) than Trump voters (29%) to say housing affordability factored into their decision.

Respondents were asked to consider 14 different issues that factored into their vote. The leading concern for early voters was the economy (63%), followed by inflation (59%), and protecting democracy (56%). Next came immigration (55%), healthcare (52%), crime and safety (47%), access to abortion (45%), U.S. involvement in foreign wars (41%), freedom of speech (41%), gun violence (40%) and the United States’ standing in the world (38%). 

The only issues less likely to impact early voters’ presidential pick than housing affordability were climate change (36%) and access to gender affirming care (19%). 

Home prices in traditionally blue parts of the country are typically higher than in red areas, analysts with Redfin noted in their report. 

Nearly one-third (32%) of respondents share the belief that mortgage rates will fall if Trump is elected president, while less than one-quarter (23%) think rates will fall if Harris is elected. On the other hand, 32% think rates will rise if Harris wins, while 28% think rates will rise if Trump wins. 

About a quarter of respondents say they don’t know what will happen with mortgage rates if Trump wins, and roughly the same share don’t know what will happen with rates if Harris wins.

“Mortgage rates are primarily influenced by economic conditions and the Federal Reserve, which is politically independent, though Congress and the president of the United States are able to influence the long-term direction of the economy through policy changes,” analysts said. 

Election Day is Tuesday, and the Fed’s next interest rate decision is expected to be announced Thursday.

About the author
Associate Editor
Erica Drzewiecki is an associate editor at NMP.
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