Skip to main content

Freddie Mac Economist: Mortgage Rates Trend 'Sideways'

May 11, 2023
Freddie Mac PMMS 051123

Both 30- and 15-year fixed rates decreased this week.

KEY TAKEAWAYS
  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.35%.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.75%.

Mortgage rates have gone sideways.

That’s the takeaway from the latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) produced by Freddie Mac, which found that both the 30-year and 15-year fixed rates decreased for the week ended May 11. 

The 30-year rate slipped to 6.35%, while the 15-year dipped to 5.75%.

The decrease for the 30-year rate was the second straight weekly decline, while the 15-year rate declined after increasing slightly last week.

“This week’s decrease continues a recent sideways trend in mortgage rates, which is a welcome departure from the record increases of last year,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “While inflation remains elevated, its rate of growth has moderated and is expected to decelerate over the remainder of 2023. This should bode well for the trajectory of mortgage rates over the long-term.”

Mortgage Rates

  • The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.35% as of May 11, down a tad from 6.39% last week. A year ago, it averaged 5.3%.
  • The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.75%, down slightly from last week when it averaged 5.76% A year ago it averaged%.

Freddie Mac’s PMMS is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit.

Jiayi Xu, economist for Realtor.com, said rates moved lower as 10-year Treasury yields trended down. 

"In light of a strong jobs report last week, April’s CPI (consumer price index) data reinforced that we are very likely at the end of the tightening cycle,” Xu said. “In April 2023, the headline CPI climbed by 4.9% year-over-year, slowing for the 10th-consecutive month and hitting its lowest level in two years. The core inflation — which includes goods and services excluding volatile food and energy — was at 5.5%. On a monthly basis, both the headline and core indexes increased 0.4%, in line with forecasts from economists.” 

As long as the economy continues to see progress on inflation, it is expected that mortgage rates will remain toward the lower end of the 6% to 7% range, Xu said.

About the author
David Krechevsky was an editor at NMP.
Published
May 11, 2023
Lenders Prep For Recession As Deals Collapse And Buyers Stall

Leaky pipelines and buyer pullback define Q2 2025

May 22, 2025
Fannie Mae Forecasts Additional Home Sales For 2025

GSE also predicts lower rates, higher originations for ’25 and ’26, with next year to eclipse this one

May 21, 2025
Mortgage Applications Drop As Rates Reach Three-Month High Point

Purchase apps still 13% higher than a year ago, despite latest weekly slide

May 21, 2025
U.S. House Price Growth Continues Slowdown

Report finds prices grew at slowest annual rate in 13 years, underscoring housing market ‘rebalancing'

May 21, 2025
Moody’s Downgrades Fannie And Freddie Following U.S. Sovereign Credit Cut

Outlooks for both GSEs revised from negative to stable

May 20, 2025
This Spring Homebuying Season? Soft, Reports Say

Usually active buying period likely another disappointment for many MLOs, brokers

May 20, 2025