Homebuying Demand Resilient In The Face Of Looming Election
Twelve days out from the presidential election, Redfin says homebuying demand and pending sales are performing well
Pending U.S. home sales rose 3.5% year over year during the four weeks ending October 20, the second-largest increase in three years following last week's 3.7% rise. On a local level, pending sales are up in 35 of the 50 most populous U.S. metros, the most in three years.
Just 12 days from the presidential election, a new report from digital brokerage Redfin asserts homebuying demand remains strong, even in the face of high housing costs. Typically, consumers hit a shopping slump around presidential elections when it comes to major purchases like houses, cars, and investments, per a study from the New York Times.
Chen Zhao, Redfin’s economic research lead, said she would expect a bigger drop-off in homebuying demand given how much mortgage rates have increased in the last few weeks. The weekly average mortgage rate is 6.44%, up from a two-year low of 6.08% at the end of September, and the daily average is 6.92%, its highest level since July.
Demand is also holding up at earlier stages of the homebuying process, per Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of tours and other buying services from Redfin agents. The Index hit its highest level since May, inching up 7% since last month, and is up 3% year over year.
Rising rates and stubbornly high home prices have pushed the median U.S. monthly housing payment to $2,587, the highest level since July (except the prior 4-week period, when the median payment was $2,591). Cash buyers may be propping up home sales: Mortgage-purchase applications fell 5% in the last week, dropping near their lowest level in a year, even as pending sales and early-stage demand hold up.
On the selling side, new listings of homes for sale are up 2.2% annually, one of the smallest increases in a year.
Months of supply is in a healthy range, too, increasing by 0.6 pts. year over year to 4.1 months. Redfin says that 4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions.