Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.6%, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction.
Both the unemployment rate, at 3.6%, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6 million, changed little in June. The unemployment rate has ranged from 3.4 to 3.7% since March 2022.
According to published reports, economists had expected a slightly healthier increase of 235,000 new jobs.
The numbers appear to point to another rate hike by the Federal Reserve this month. “While job growth and wage growth are trending down, both are still well above the pace that would be consistent with the Federal Reserve’s inflation target. We now expect that the FOMC will raise the federal funds target another 25 basis points at its July meeting,” said Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in June, as employment in government, health care, social assistance, and construction continued to trend up. Nonfarm employment has grown by an average of 278,000 per month over the first six months of 2023, lower than the average of 399,000 per month in 2022.
Private sector employment increased by 497,000 jobs in June, and annual pay was up 6.4% year-over-year, according to the June ADP National Employment Report produced by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.
According to the ADP research, financial services jobs dropped by 16,000 in June. That was second to information technology, which dropped by 30,000 jobs month-to-month. Professional and business services jobs dropped by 5,000 jobs. Leisure and hospitality saw the biggest jump at 232,000 jobs.
“Consumer-facing service industries had a strong June, aligning to push job creation higher than expected. But wage growth continues to ebb in these same industries, and hiring likely is cresting after a late-cycle surge,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.
Jobs numbers for the prior two months were revised downwards, according to BLS. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down by 77,000, from 294,000 to 217,000, and the jobs numbers for May were revised down by 33,000, from 339,000 to 306,000. With these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 110,000 lower than previously reported.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics information is derived from statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry.
