Nearly everyone who hopes to buy a home this year says they won’t act if rates don’t dip below 6%, according to new research. So the general consensus that rates will range between 6% and 6.5% in 2026 won’t be welcome news — to buyers or housing professionals.
The survey of 1,000 potential buyers by Clever Real Estate and Best Interest Financial found that 64% have already delayed their plans to buy a home, and a substantial 58% say current rates make homeownership unattainable for them.
Meanwhile, 58% are also expecting rates to decline in 2026, and a whopping 94% say they’d change their home-buying plans if rates don’t fall below the 6% benchmark sometime in the next 11 months.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond would likely need to fall below 4% before mortgage interest rates drop under 6%. It currently sits between 4.1% and 4.3%.
About 63% of the potential buyers would only consider a “good” mortgage rate to be one under 5%, while 37% say “good” rates only begin in the 3% range.
“The most underrated factor is bond market sentiment,” said John Donikian, branch manager at Best Interest Financial. “How investors feel about growth and inflation expectations matters more than what the Fed says at a press conference. Housing demand data itself is also underrated — it feeds directly back into rate expectations.”
Like many, Donikian doesn’t see mortgage rates collapsing. “I see them moving within a range, with volatility tied to economic data,” he said. “Unless the economy clearly breaks or inflation decisively rolls over, rates are more likely to hover in the low- to mid-6% range rather than fall meaningfully below it.”
Loan costs are always an “X” factor when buying a house, but many people don’t appear to have a good understanding on how they are set or where they are heading, either.
Just 43% of those polled by Clever-Best Interest believe rates will average between 5% and 7% this year. And a nearly equal 42% predict average interest rates will drop under 5%, compared to 16% who foresee a spike to 7% or higher.
Whatever the case, Best Interest Financial President Cody Schuiteboer said those who understand rates and the market will have an advantage. “Preparation creates leverage," he said. "The more clarity you have upfront, the better positioned you are when the opportunity presents itself.”
Buyer confusion isn’t limited to future rates, either. Two-thirds of those planning to buy a home in 2026 expect they’d receive a mortgage interest rate under 6% if they applied today, and 43% even expect one under 5%, where rates haven’t sat since early 2022.
A stunning one in four (25%) think Great Recession-era rates under 4% are still available.
Conversely, 14% overshoot mortgage rates, thinking they could only get a rate of 7% or higher, a level that rates have rarely hit, despite recent increases.
