10-Year Breaks 4%: Jobs Week Ahead

The bond market just crossed a major line in the sand. In this week’s Master the Markets, host and expert Bill Bodnar breaks down the significance of the 10-year Treasury moving below 4% for the first time in a while — a key technical level that could set the tone for mortgage rates this spring.
Even after a hot Producer Price Index (PPI) reading last Friday, the bond market largely shrugged it off. That tells you something about current momentum. Now, the focus shifts squarely to the labor market, with Friday’s jobs report taking center stage. Last month showed a surge in private payroll growth, but as Bill reminds us, one number doesn’t make a trend. A repeat performance — particularly strong private job creation with less reliance on government hiring — would reinforce a healthy economic backdrop heading into the busy housing season.
Meanwhile, there’s another headline worth sharing with borrowers: Fannie Mae reports 30-year mortgage rates dipping below 6% for the first time in three and a half years. That’s a meaningful psychological and affordability milestone.