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Bonds Hit 2-Year Highs Ahead of PCE

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Mortgage rates, Fed, market update, inflation, housing, mortgage-backed securities. A powerful week for the bond market. In this episode of Master the Markets, host and expert Bill Bodnar breaks down how the 10-year Treasury closed near its best levels in two years, holding right around the critical 4% level as we head into a quieter stretch for markets. With the Fed now in its pre-meeting blackout period, there are no official comments to sway sentiment — giving the data the spotlight.

The main event: Friday’s Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. While this release is backward-looking (from September), it includes the key components shaping the path of future rate cuts — shelter and owners’ equivalent rent. Recent CPI data showed these categories dropping to their lowest levels in five years, and if PCE confirms that trend, it could accelerate the decline in inflation faster than expected.

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Published
Dec 01, 2025