Veros Real Estate Solutions has released its most recent update to its U.S. real estate market forecast, a report that uses advanced analytics and micro-market data to achieve highly accurate results. The company’s VeroFORECAST product is utilized by economists, statisticians and business leaders all along the mortgage industry value chain as a key resource for forecasting and strategic planning due to its consistent strength and accuracy over the eight years the forecast has been available. The quarterly forecast update for June 2010 through June 2011 indicates new findings amid the consistent gains in some markets.
“More coastal California markets are showing signs of improvement,” says Eric Fox, Veros’ vice president of statistical and economic modeling. “California’s Inland Empire area, including Riverside, San Bernardino and Ontario, is showing signs of modest appreciation, joining the state’s strongest metro region, San Diego. Colorado is beginning to look good again to buyers, with three cities among the top 10.”
“A new entry among the top five positive trending areas is Louisiana’s Shreveport and Bossier City area, which is well-removed from the Gulf Coast on the Red River,” Fox said. “The Houston metro area is also demonstrating modest improvement, and at this point we can only speculate on the effects, if any, that will result in the residential real estate market from the catastrophic BP oil spill in the Gulf. None of our zip code level models which are on the coast of the impacted coastal areas are yet showing significant forecast differences from those zip code models that are further inland and less impacted.”
Projected five strongest markets*
1. Shreveport/Bossier City, La. +4.2%
2. San Diego/Carlsbad/San Marcos, Calif. +3.4%
3. Riverside/San Bernardino/Ontario, CA +3.2%
4. Amarillo, Texas +3.2%
5. Houston/Sugar Land/Baytown, Texas +3.1%
*Markets demonstrated are for residential real estate in major metro areas (typically greater than 500,000 residents) among single-family homes in the median price tier.
In general, Fox says, the Central Plains areas are continuing to hold values in the next year. Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and east to parts of Louisiana and Arkansas are holding steady, underscoring a weak but consistent mild recovery. Adding an additional note of optimism, Fox noted VeroFORECAST’s 24-month projections show many markets are indicating stronger recoveries two years from now.
"Although there aren’t any overwhelmingly strong appreciating forecasts in the near term, the depreciating ones are milder than they were a year ago,” Fox said. Chico, Calif. leads the list of weakening markets, but Florida continues its depreciation trend in many areas along its east coast. Nevada’s second largest market, Reno/Sparks, stays on the list of weakest markets while Las Vegas avoided inclusion. Utah did not, however; the Salt Lake City and nearby Provo/Orem areas occupy the last two slots in Veros’ bottom ten, according to Fox.
Projected five weakest markets*
1. Chico, Calif. -8.9%
2. Deltona/Daytona Beach/Ormond Beach, Fla. -8.3%
3. Reno/Sparks, Nev. -7.8%
4. Vero Beach, Fla. -7.8%
5. Palm Bay/Melbourne/Titusville, Fla. -7.7%
*Markets demonstrated are for residential real estate in major metro areas (typically greater than 500,000 residents) among single-family homes in the median price tier.
VeroFORECAST provides 12-, 18- and 24-month price forecasts on the national real estate market and applies more than 50 critical decisioning factors in its forecast analytics to develop reliable market trend predictions covering more than 900 counties, nearly 300 metro areas and almost 14,000 zip codes that account for 78 percent of the U.S. population. Key factors range from interest, unemployment and inflation rates, to housing inventory levels and an array of economic and geographic trends. Veros engineered VeroFORECAST in response to demand for more focused, more useful reports featuring improved methods and emphasizing more localized data sources in its analytics.
Fox, an authority on probabilistic financial and competitive analysis, points out that emphasizing the local level is critical to keeping predictions like those in VeroFORECAST meaningful and accurate.
“We find it more useful to segment by property types, by three distinct pricing tiers—upper, middle and entry-level—and by metro area, county and zip code,” said Fox. “We have a track record of more than seven years of very high accuracy using these methods and we have learned that this specific combination of forecast attributes makes reports more comprehensive and accurate.”
The key in gaining a competitive edge in today’s environment is having the best possible information to make the best possible business decisions, Fox states. “It’s an unforgiving market,” he said. “There is simply no substitute for accurate market intelligence derived from granular precision and solid analytics.”
For more information, visit www.Veros.com.
