The San Diego area regained its lead position for the strongest home price appreciation over the next 12 months in the most recent update to the U.S. real estate market forecast from Veros Real Estate Solutions, a provider of enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services. Veros’ U.S. real estate market forecast, VeroFORECAST, uses advanced analytics and micro-market data to achieve highly accurate results, and is utilized by economists, statisticians and business leaders as a key resource for forecasting and strategic planning due to its consistent strength and accuracy over the eight years the forecast has been available.
The forecast for December 2010 through December 2011 indicates that select markets in the U.S. can expect to witness 2.5-3.5 percent appreciation on home values over the next 12 months, including Washington State’s tri-city area, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Fargo, North Dakota, and the Washington D.C. metro area. Florida, Reno, Nevada and Boise, Idaho will experience the nation’s greatest depreciation rates in the coming 12 months, a trend which continues from prior periods.
Projected Five Strongest Markets*
1. San Diego/Carlsbad/San Marcos, Calif. +3.5 percent
2. Kennewick/Richland/Pasco, Wash. +3.4 percent
3. Pittsburgh, Pa. +2.7 percent
4. Fargo, N.D./Minn. +2.6 percent
5. Washington/Arlington/Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md-W.V. +2.5 percent
Projected Five Weakest Markets*
1. Reno/Sparks, Nev. -7.2 percent
2. Orlando/Kissimmee, Fla. -6.5 percent
3. Boise City/Nampa, Idaho -6.4 percent
4. Deltona/Daytona Beach/Ormond Beach, Fla. -6.3 percent
5. Port St. Lucie/Fort Pierce, Fla. -6.3 percent
Strengthening markets
The Central Plains and Texas continue to see positive appreciation compared to prior periods, with generally good forecasts in Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, South Dakota, North Dakota and Iowa. A strengthening trend is also spreading to the Midwest with encouraging numbers in parts of Mississippi, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin. San Diego, California continues its consistent pattern of staying among the nation’s leaders in home value gains.
“Smaller metro markets with populations less than 250,000 make up the majority of the better appreciating markets,” said Eric Fox, Veros’ vice president of statistical and economic modeling, crediting affordability factors.
Weak markets
The outlook for Florida remains weak, with six of the ten U.S. markets expecting the greatest depreciation. Other especially weak forecasts include Reno/Sparks, Nev., California’s interior, much of Idaho, and western portions of Washington and Oregon.
“It is noteworthy that depreciating forecasts remain much better than those from a year ago with nothing worse than seven percent depreciation,” Fox said. “A year ago, we were seeing some markets with depreciation rates in the double-digit range.”
Approximately 40 percent of all major metro areas are forecast to appreciate over the next 12 months, even though appreciation is expected to be mild. Looking out to the 12 to 24 month horizon, nearly 60 percent of markets are expected to appreciate,” Fox said. “So while things aren’t happening rapidly, the forecast indicates they are getting better.”
VeroFORECAST provides forecasts on the national real estate market with the capacity to segment results by property types, by three distinct pricing tiers—upper, middle and entry-level—and by metro area, county or zip code. The forecast utilizes more than 50 critical decisioning factors in its forecast analytics to develop reliable market trend predictions covering more than 900 counties, more than 300 metro areas and nearly 14,000 zip codes. Key factors range from interest, unemployment and inflation rates, to housing inventory levels and an array of economic and geographic trends. Veros engineered VeroFORECAST in response to demand for more focused and useful reports featuring improved methods and emphasizing more localized data in its analytics.
*Markets demonstrated are for residential real estate in major metro areas (typically greater than 500,000 residents) among single-family homes in the median price tier.
For more information, visit www.veros.com.
