MBA Forecasts Purchase Boom Delayed Until 2012

Last month, we reported the forecast by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) for purchase mortgage volume was targeted at $558 billion for 2011 and $730 billion in 2012, a nearly 70 percent two-year rise (2010-2012) from 2010's total of $473. The MBA just recently revised their 2011 and 2012 purchase forecasts to be $488 billion in 2011 and $775 billion in 2012. This forecast revision represents a predicted drop off in purchase mortgage volume of $70 billion in 2011 and a rise of approximately $45 billion in 2012. According to the MBA's Mortgage Finance Forecast released in mid-April, in 2010, refinances were at 70 percent. Since 1990, the average rate of refis stood only at 44 percent annually. MBA forecasts that in 2011, the total refinance volume should hover around the $562 billion range, a very significant dropoff of approximately $537 billion from 2010's refi forecast. A dropoff of $312 billion is expected as a year-over-year change from 2011 to 2012.