Pending Home Sales Remain Low But Ahead of 2010 Levels

Pending home sales declined in July, but remain above 2010's levels, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). All regions show monthly declines except for the West, which continues to show the highest level of sales contract activity. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, slipped 1.3 percent to 89.7 in July from 90.9 in June but is 14.4 percent above the 78.4 index in July 2010. The data reflects contracts but not closings. “The market can easily move into a healthy expansion if mortgage underwriting standards return to normalcy,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Relators (NAR). “We also need to be mindful that not all sales contracts are leading to closed existing-home sales. Other market frictions need to be addressed, such as assuring that proper comparables are used in appraisal valuations, and streamlining the short sales process.” The PHSI in the Northeast declined two percent to 67.5 in July but is 9.7 percent above July 2010. In the Midwest, the Index slipped 0.8 percent to 79.1 in July, but is 18.8 percent above a year ago. Pending home sales in the South fell 4.8 percent to an index of 94.4, but are 9.5 percent higher than July 2010. In the West, the PHSI rose 3.6 percent to 110.8 in July and is 20.6 percent above a year ago. “Looking at pending home sales over a longer span, contract activity over the past three months is fairly comparable to the first three months of the year, and well above the low seen in April,” Yun said. “The underlying factors for improving sales are developing, such as rising rents, record high affordability conditions and investors buying real estate as a future inflation hedge. It is now a question of lending standards and consumers having the necessary confidence to enter the market.”