Data through October 2011, released by Standard & Poor's (S&P) Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI), showed decreases of 1.1 percent and 1.2 percent for the 10- and 20-City Composites in October versus September. Nineteen of the 20 cities covered by the indices also saw home prices decrease over the month. The 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual returns of -3.0 percent and -3.4 percent versus October 2010, respectively. Fourteen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites saw improved annual returns compared to September’s data.
Miami saw no change in annual returns in October; while Atlanta, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and Minneapolis saw their annual rates worsen. At -11.7 percent, Atlanta posted the lowest annual return. Detroit and the Washington, D.C. area were the only two cities to post positive annual returns of +2.5 percent and +1.3 percent, respectively.
The chart above depicts the annual returns of the 10-City and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. In October of 2011, the 10- and 20-City Composites recorded annual returns of -3.0 percent and -3.4 percent, respectively. Both Composites and 14 MSAs—Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Tampa, and Washington/the District of Columbia—saw their annual rates improve in October compared to September.
“There was weakness in the monthly statistics, as 19 of the cities posted price declines in October over September,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “Eleven of the cities and both composites fell by one percent or more during the month. And even though some of the annual rates are improving, 18 cities and both Composites are still negative. Nationally, home prices are still below where they were a year ago. The 10-City Composite is down three percent and the 20-City is down 3.4 percent compared to October 2010."
The chart below shows the index levels for the 10-City and 20-City Composite Indices. As of October 2011, average home prices across the United States are back to the levels where they were in the middle of 2003. Measured from their June/July 2006 peaks through October 2011, the peak-to-current declines for the 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite are -31.9 percent and -32.1 percent, respectively. The recovery from recent lows are +2.4 percent and +1.9 percent, respectively. The 10-City Composite hit its crisis low in April 2009, whereas the 20-City reached a more recent low in March 2011.
At +0.3 percent, Phoenix was the only one of the 20 MSAs that posted a positive monthly change. The 10-City and 20-City Composites were down -1.1 percent and -1.2 percent, respectively, from their September 2011 levels.
“In the October data, the only good news is some improvement in the annual rates of change in home prices, with 14 of 20 cities and both Composites seeing their annual rates of change improve. The crisis low for the 10-City Composite was back in April 2009; whereas it was a more recent March 2011 for the 20-City Composite," said Blitzer. "The 10-City Composite is about 2.4 percent above its relative low, and the 20-City Composite is about 1.9 percent."
Blitzer continued, “Atlanta and the Midwest are regions that really stand out in terms of recent relative weakness. Atlanta was down five percent over the month, after having fallen by 5.9 percent in September. It also has the weakest annual return, down 11.7 percent. Chicago, Cleveland Detroit and Minneapolis all posted monthly declines of one percent or more in October. These markets were some of the strongest during the spring/summer buying season."
