Significant Dip in Commercial and Multifamily Loan Maturities Forecast for 2014

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) has released its 2013 Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Survey of Loan Maturity Volumes. The survey found six percent, or $91.7 billion of the $1.5 trillion of outstanding commercial and multifamily mortgages held by non-bank lenders and investors, will mature in 2014, a 23 percent decline from the $119.5 billion that matured in 2013. Maturities will grow to $213 billion in 2016. The loan maturities vary significantly by investor group. Just three percent ($12.7 billion) of the outstanding balance of multifamily and health care mortgages held or guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA and Ginnie Mae will mature in 2014. Life insurance companies will see five percent ($18 billion) of their outstanding mortgage balances mature in 2014. Among loans held in CMBS, seven percent ($41.8 billion) will come due in 2014. Fifteen percent ($19.2 billion) of commercial mortgages held by credit companies and other investors will mature in 2014. “2014 will be the fourth straight year of declining commercial/multifamily mortgage maturities,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s vice president of Commercial Real Estate Research. “Following 2014, we will see volumes spike—by 72 percent in 2015 and an additional 34 percent in 2016, as 10-year loans made in 2005, 2006 and 2007 begin to come due.” The dollar figures reported are the unpaid principle balances as of Dec. 31, 2013. Because most loans pay down principle, the balances at the time of maturity will generally be lower than those reported here. This survey covers $1.55 trillion of commercial and multifamily mortgages held or insured by life companies, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA, CMBS trusts, and other non-bank lenders and investors. Banks and thrifts hold an additional $870 billion in mortgages backed by income producing properties which are not covered by this survey.