The latest data from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices reaffirmed what has become the obvious news story of the mortgage industry: home prices are still rising.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reported a 6.2 percent annual gain in November, up from 6.1 percent in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.1 percent, up from 5.9 percent in October, while the 20-City Composite posted a 6.4 percent year-over-year gain, up from 6.3 percent one month earlier. Seattle had the greatest metro area increase, with a 12.7 percent year-over-year price spike followed by Las Vegas with a 10.6 percent rise and San Francisco with a 9.1 percent upswing.
Before the seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.2 percent in November while the 10-City and 20-City Composites reported increases of 0.3 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.7 percent month-over-month uptick, with the 10-City and 20-City Composites posting 0.8 percent and 0.7 percent month-over-month increases, respectively. Ten of 20 cities reported increases in November before seasonal adjustment, while all 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
“Home prices continue to rise three times faster than the rate of inflation,” said David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Index year-over-year increases have been five percent or more for 16 months; the 20-City index has climbed at this pace for 28 months. Given slow population and income growth since the financial crisis, demand is not the primary factor in rising home prices.”
Blitzer warned that without new construction, home prices will continue to balloon.
“From 2010 to the latest month of data, the construction of single family homes slowed, with single family home starts averaging 632,000 annually,” Blitzer continued. “This is less than the annual rate during the 2007-2009 financial crisis of 698,000, which is far less than the long-term average of slightly more than one million annually from 1959 to 2000 and 1.5 million during the 2001-2006 boom years. Without more supply, home prices may continue to substantially outpace inflation.”