New Delinquencies Drop To Record Low In March, April Payments Signal Improvements

Black Knight's March 2021 Mortgage Monitor report revealed that there has been a record-low inflow of activities of delinquencies and an acceleration in cure activity.

The report, produced by Black Knight's Data & Analytics division of released Report, based upon the company’s industry-leading mortgage, real estate and public records data based upon the company’s industry-leading mortgage, real estate and public records datasets, according to a press release. In light of March’s 16.4% decline in delinquencies – as reported in Black Knight’s First Look at the month's data – this month’s report drills deeper into what that may mean for the market.

Black Knight Data & Analytics resident Ben Graboske explained that both the company’s full-month data for March and its unique McDash Flash daily performance tracking data for April suggest strengthening economic trends are now manifesting in the mortgage market.

“Not only did March see the largest single-month improvement in delinquencies in 11 years, but all indications suggest more is yet to come,” said Graboske. “Several factors contributed to particularly strong mortgage performance in March, including the distribution of 159 million stimulus payments totaling more than $376 billion, broader economic improvement leading to nearly a million new jobs and 1.2 million forbearance plans reviewed for extension or removal, resulting in an 11% decline in plan volumes in the last 30 days. As many early forbearance plan adopters shifted to post-forbearance waterfalls to get back to performing on their mortgage payments, inflow has continued to steadily improve as well. And, of the 7.1 million homeowners who have been in COVID-19 forbearance at one point or another, performance among those who have left plans has generally been strong.”

“Some other key metrics also point to a robust recovery under way. Despite mortgage delinquencies tending to trend seasonally upward starting in April, our McDash Flash daily performance dataset instead shows strong early payment activity for the month,” added Graboske. “Through April 23, 91.6% of mortgage holders had made their monthly payments, up from 91% in March and the largest share for any month since the onset of the pandemic. That said, while overall sentiment for an economic recovery in 2021 remains robust, mortgage performance is expected to run into seasonal headwinds for most of the remainder of the year, which could marginally dampen overall improvement rates. Black Knight will continue to monitor the situation as we move forward.”

The report’s data showed that the number of borrowers with a single payment past due fell by 34% from February and is now down 50% from the same time last year to hit an all-time low in March. Though 60-day delinquencies are also now back below pre-pandemic levels and near record lows as well, the number of homeowners 90 or more days past due remains nearly five times what it was prior to COVID.

Click here to view more from the report.