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CoreLogic: Price Growth To Decelerate To 3.2% By August 2023

Sarah Wolak
Oct 04, 2022
CoreLogic HPI October 2022

Prediction is based in part on U.S. home prices slowing for the fourth consecutive month.

KEY TAKEAWAYS
  • U.S. home prices increased 13.5% year over year in August compared to August 2021.
  • The 0.7% month-over-month price decrease also indicates reduced homebuyer enthusiasm.

Although U.S. home prices continued their 127-month run of consecutive annual gains in August, they slowed for the fourth straight month to 13.5%, according to CoreLogic’s HPI Forecast for August 2022

That’s the lowest year-over-year appreciation recorded since April 2021 and partially reflects continued cooling buyer demand due to higher mortgage rates and housing trends motivated by the COVID-19 outbreak winding down.

The 0.7% month-over-month price decrease also indicates reduced homebuyer enthusiasm, with nearly three-quarters of states posting declines from July, CoreLogic said.

“The increased cost of homeownership has dampened buyer demand and caused prices to decelerate at a faster pace than initially expected,” said Selma Hepp, interim lead of the Office of the Chief Economist at CoreLogic. “Housing markets on the West Coast and in the Mountain West, as well as second-home markets, recorded particularly strong price growth in the summer of 2021 but were the first to see month-over-month price declines during the same period this year. While decelerating price growth and price declines benefit younger potential homebuyers, mortgage rates that are approaching 7% may cut many hopefuls out of the picture.”

U.S. home prices — including distressed sales — increased 13.5% year over year in August compared to August 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by 0.7% compared to July 2022.

In August, annual appreciation of detached properties, at 13.7%, was 0.9 percentage points higher than that of attached properties (12.8%).

With this data, CoreLogic predicts that annual U.S. home price gains are forecast to slow to 3.2% by August 2023.

Other takeaways from the CoreLogic report: 

  • Miami posted the highest year-over-year home price increase of the country’s 20 largest metro areas in August, at 27.1%, while Tampa, Fla., dropped to the second spot at 26.9%. Hurricane Ian’s impact on Tampa’s housing market and other parts of Florida could cause price growth there to relax even more than the projected U.S. slowdown.
  • Florida and Tennessee posted the highest home price gains — at 26.4% and 20% respectively. North Carolina ranked third with a 19.9% year-over-year increase. Washington, D.C., ranked last for appreciation, at 2.4%.
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