Experts Forecast Stronger Home Price Growth For 2024

A group of 100 experts surveyed by Fannie Mae concluded that national home prices would grow 3.8% in 2024. 

This forecast represents an upward revision from last quarter's expectations of 2.4%. Furthermore, the panel anticipates a slightly lower but still significant growth rate of 3.4% for 2025.

The Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey, which polls over 100 experts from various sectors of the housing and mortgage industry as well as academia, provides insights into the anticipated changes in national home prices over the next five years, measured by the Fannie Mae Home Price Index.

"On average, our panelists continue to expect home price growth to decelerate this year, but their overall outlook was revised upward this quarter, with most now reporting greater upside risk to home prices than downside risk," Fannie Mae Vice President of Economics Hamilton Fout said. "If mortgage rates move toward the panel-predicted six percent median rate by the end of 2024, we would expect this to be supportive of continued home price growth, particularly given the persistent supply-side challenges facing the housing market."

Key highlights from the Q1 2024 survey include an increased share of panelists expressing higher upside risk to their home price forecasts. In comparison to 26% in Q4 2023, 41% of experts in Q1 2024 foresee greater potential for home prices to surpass their projections. The primary factors cited for this belief are persistent housing supply constraints and lower mortgage rates.