Redfin reports that just 25.3% of U.S. homes that sold in September 2025 went for more than their final list price, down from 28.5% year-over-year, and the lowest September level in six years.
Two other metrics that measure competition in the housing market also dropped to their lowest September levels in six years last month:
- Average sale-to-list-price ratio: This metric came in at 98.6%, down from 99.1% a year earlier. That means the typical home sold for 1.4% less than its final list price, compared with 0.9% less last September.
- Share of homes selling in two weeks: 32.8% of homes that went under contract did so within two weeks of being listed, down from 34.9% a year earlier.
A fourth metric — time on market — shows that the housing market is moving at the slowest pace for this time of year in nearly a decade. The typical home that went under contract in September sat on the market for 50 days — the slowest September pace since 2016.
“Homebuyers have extremely high expectations. Some of them remember being preapproved for a 3% mortgage rate during the pandemic, which meant they could afford a $450,000 house. Now that rates, insurance costs and property taxes have gone up, they can only afford a $325,000 house, but still have $450,000 expectations,” said Roze Swartz, a Redfin Premier agent in Houston. “Sellers can’t be picky on price — if they don’t have the lowest price on the market, they’re not even going to get showings. That’s a tough pill to swallow, but it’s better to price low from the start than price high and make a drastic cut after your home has been sitting on the market for months without any offers.”
The sluggish nature of the market can be attributed to high costs and economic uncertainty, two variables that are limiting the number of people buying homes. Inventory has also ticked up, meaning the buyers who are in the market have more options and many of them can afford to take their time. There are 36.7% more home sellers in the market than buyers — a near-record gap. The good news for buyers is this means they often have an opportunity to negotiate and ask for concessions.
Home Prices on the Upswing
Redfin reports that the median home sale price rose 1.7% year-over-year to $435,545 in September — the biggest uptick in six months and the highest September level on record.
As housing inventory rose the first half of the year, home price growth slowed down, thus offering more options for prospective buyers. However listings have started to tick down in recent months, which has in turn pushed up sale prices. Still, as mentioned above, sellers in many markets are accepting offers for less than their list prices because buyers continue to have negotiating power.
Active listings reportedly fell 0.6% month-over-month to 1.96 million in September on a seasonally adjusted basis — the lowest level since February — but were still up 8% year-over-year.
Existing-Home Sales Reach Apex of 2025
Existing-home sales increased by 1.5% month-over-month in September, according to new data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, South and West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in the Northeast, Midwest and South, and remained flat in the West.
“As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. “Improving housing affordability is also contributing to the increase in sales. Inventory is matching a five-year high, though it remains below pre-COVID levels. Many homeowners are financially comfortable, resulting in very few distressed properties and forced sales. Home prices continue to rise in most parts of the country, further contributing to overall household wealth.”
Regionally, the West led the way with a 5.5% increase in existing-home sales month-over-month to an annual rate of 770,000, with no change year-over-year. At $619,100, the median price was up 0.4% year-over-year from September 2024.
The Northeast reported a 2.1% increase in existing-home sales month-over-month to an annual rate of 490,000, up 4.3% year-over-year. At $500,300, the median price was up 4.1% from September 2024’s reported totals.
In the South, there was a 1.6% increase in existing-home sales month-over-month to an annual rate of 1.86 million, up 6.9% year-over-year. And at $364,500, the median price of an existing-home sold was up 1.2% from September 2024.
The Midwest was the only region with a dip in existing-home sales, as the region reported a 2.1% decrease in sales month-over-month to an annual rate of 940,000, up 2.2% year-over-year. And at $320,800, the median price of an existing-home sold in the Midwest was up 4.7% from September 2024.
It’s worth noting that existing-home sales and total sales are backward-looking metrics and represent deals that were negotiated in months past. A more current gauge of homebuyer demand is pending home sales, which fell 1% month-over-month on a seasonally-adjusted basis in September and dropped 2.4% year over year — the biggest annual decline since February.
