People are continuing to move to the parts of America endangered by wildfires, flooding, and extreme heat—even as those dangers become more frequent and intense—according to a new report from Redfin, which is based on analysis of domestic migration data from the U.S. Census Bureau and climate-risk scores from First Street.
Census migration data for 2023 covers July 2022-July 2023, and Census migration data for 2022 covers July 2021-July 2022. Redfin defines a high-risk county as one that ranks in the top 10% when it comes to the share of homes facing high fire or flood risk.
The country's high-fire-risk counties saw 63,365 more people move in than out in 2023, with much of that net inflow from people moving to Texas. Redfin says that the story differs from state to state; among California’s high-fire-risk areas, more people left than moved in. That marks a reversal from 2022, indicating that people may be growing more responsive to fire risk in the Golden State.
The nation’s high-flood-risk counties saw 16,144 more people move in than out. Florida drove a large share of the migration to high-flood-risk counties, but a smaller share than it did in 2022, indicating that people may be growing more responsive to flood risk in the Sunshine State.
The opposite occurred in low-risk areas; America’s low-fire-risk counties saw a net outflow of 38,401 people in 2023, and low-flood-risk counties experienced a net outflow of 6,892.
“Ballooning insurance costs and intensifying natural disasters are driving thousands of Americans out of risky areas, but those people are quickly being replaced by other people for whom climate change isn’t the top concern,” said Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa. “For a lot of Americans, things like cost of living and proximity to family take precedence over catastrophe risk, which can feel less immediate and more abstract. But the cost-benefit calculus seems to be shifting in places like California and Florida, where skyrocketing home insurance costs and an uptick in high-profile disasters have had a tangible impact on residents and made national news.”
Migration to fire-prone Texas drove a large part of the national net inflow to high-fire-risk areas last year. Out of 97,535 people who moved to such counties, 35,175 (36.1%) relocated to Texas, up from 28.7% in 2022. This resulted in a net inflow of 30,156 people to Texas’s high-fire-risk counties. Texas also had five of the top 10 high-fire-risk counties with the largest net inflows, including four near Dallas-Fort Worth.
Texas, often overlooked for fire risk, had the second-highest number of wildfires last year (7,102) after California (7,364), and was the top state for wildfires in 2022. It also has the highest number of homes in the Wildland Urban Interface, where developed land meets undeveloped areas, increasing wildfire vulnerability.
Five high-flood-risk counties in Texas had net inflows of more than 2,000 people in 2023. All are just outside of Houston, which last month grappled with flooding and power outages due to Hurricane Beryl, along with sweltering heat.
Harris County, which includes Houston proper and also faces high flood risk, is an outlier. It saw a net outflow of 22,792 people last year. That may partly reflect families moving to the suburbs, which gained popularity during the pandemic.
Florida saw a significant share of the national net inflow to high-flood-risk areas last year. Out of 219,799 people moving to such counties, 117,574 (53.5%) moved to Florida, which had a net inflow of 68,564 in its high-flood-risk counties. Although Florida's share of this migration decreased from 57.3% in 2022, it still had six of the top 10 counties with the largest net inflows, all located on the coast.
Miami bucks the trend. Miami-Dade County, where 38.9% of homes face high flood risk, saw a net outflow of 47,597 people in 2023. That’s a bigger outflow than almost any other county in the nation. Some people have left due to climate dangers, but many have been priced out due to the surge in housing costs during the pandemic. The median home sale price in the Miami metro area is $555,000, up almost 75% from $319,000 at this time in 2019.
More trends from the report can be found here.
