Home price appreciation accelerated for a second consecutive month, but national gains conceal sharply different conditions across markets — and even among buyers shopping in the same metro area.
Annual home price growth reached 0.9% in First American Data & Analytics’ June Home Price Index report, its highest rate since August 2025. Appreciation remained below 1% for the 10th consecutive month, but more than half of the markets tracked by First American recorded annual gains.
The widening geographic divide reflects differences in available inventory. Chicago, where housing supply remains well below pre-pandemic levels, posted the strongest overall appreciation among the 30 major metropolitan areas included in the report, at 6.2%.
Denver, meanwhile, recorded the largest decline, with prices falling 2.6% from a year earlier. First American attributed that decline to the market’s more substantial inventory recovery.
“The housing market is quietly inching back toward price growth,” First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming said. “Annual appreciation reached its fastest pace since last August, while also becoming broader based, with more than half of the markets we track once again posting annual price gains.”
Fleming said slowing inventory growth could allow appreciation to accelerate during the second half of 2026 if housing demand remains steady.
“The key reason is that inventory growth has slowed, after a year of rising supply helped keep price appreciation in check,” he said. “In the second half of the year, if supply stops improving while demand remains steady, home price appreciation is likely to continue gaining momentum.”
One Metro, Multiple Housing Markets
First American’s price-tier data show that the divide extends beyond geography. Starter, mid-tier, and luxury homes are moving in opposite directions in several major metropolitan areas.
Dallas recorded the report’s largest decline in starter-home prices, which fell 13.8% annually. Luxury prices in the same market rose 12.2%.
Austin followed a similar pattern, with starter-home prices declining 5.5% while luxury prices increased 7.3%. In the New York metropolitan division, starter prices fell 6.3%, but luxury prices rose 5.1%.
Houston starter-home prices declined 1%, compared with an 11.3% increase in its luxury tier. Miami’s starter tier fell 2.2%, while luxury prices increased 2.1%.
Fort Worth recorded substantial appreciation at both ends of the market. Starter-home prices increased 6.1%, while luxury prices surged 14.5%, the strongest luxury-tier gain among the markets included in the report.
St. Louis led the country in starter-tier appreciation at 12.4%, despite an increase of just 0.2% across the overall market. Its mid-tier prices grew only 0.8%, while luxury prices rose 5.8%.
The variation illustrates how a metro-level average can obscure the conditions facing individual borrowers. A first-time buyer may encounter declining prices and greater negotiating room while a higher-end borrower in the same metropolitan area faces renewed price pressure.
Local Inventory Takes Control
Among the 30 metropolitan areas tracked, Pittsburgh followed Chicago with 3% annual appreciation. Warren, Mich., rose 2.8%; New Brunswick, N.J., increased 2.4%; and Arlington, Va., gained 2.2%.
At the other end of the rankings, prices declined 1.8% in Tampa and 1.7% in Oakland, Miami, and Las Vegas. Charlotte and Phoenix each recorded 1.1% declines, while Austin fell 1.4%.
“Housing remains a local market story,” Fleming said. “Historically supply-constrained markets, such as Chicago, continue to post the strongest house price appreciation because inventory remains well below pre-pandemic norms. Meanwhile, markets like Denver, where inventory has recovered much more significantly, continue to face downward pressure on prices.”
Fleming said those local inventory differences will become more important if the national supply recovery continues to level off.
What It Means
For mortgage originators, the report argues against relying on a single national housing narrative. Pricing conditions vary substantially by location, price tier, and borrower segment.
In markets where prices are declining, LOs can help buyers evaluate seller concessions, temporary or permanent rate buydowns, and other negotiating opportunities. In supply-constrained markets where appreciation is strengthening, borrowers may need to prepare for greater competition and less leverage.
The price-tier differences also give LOs an opportunity to make their outreach more specific. Messaging aimed at first-time buyers in Dallas, for example, should reflect conditions that bear little resemblance to those facing the market’s luxury buyers.
The national market may be inching toward stronger price growth, but the opportunity for originators will depend on knowing which homes are appreciating, where inventory remains constrained, and which borrowers still hold the negotiating advantage.
*This article was primarily written by a human author. AI tools were used in a limited capacity for research assistance or light editing.
