Half of Americans who purchased homes during the past two years say their mortgage payments will not be sustainable unless they can refinance at a lower rate, according to a new survey from income and employment verification provider Truework.
The finding suggests that many recent buyers did not merely view refinancing as a potential financial benefit. They entered the market expecting it to become part of their long-term affordability strategy.
Among recent buyers with a mortgage, 85% said refinancing within the next three years is important to their financial health, according to Truework’s 2026 Homebuyers Report. That compares with 56% in a separate Truework survey released last year.
The year-over-year comparison should be viewed as directional because the two surveys were conducted by different research firms. Still, the latest results point to mounting dependence on a future decline in mortgage rates.
Six in 10 respondents said they expected rates to fall after they purchased their homes, while 73% said they planned from the outset to refinance once borrowing costs declined.
“For decades, the conversation around affordability has focused on whether buyers could qualify for a mortgage,” said Randy Lightbody, head of mortgage at Truework. “However, our research shows that many buyers are qualifying based on one payment while planning their financial future around another, even gambling on a rate cut that might never come.”
“Affordability is no longer just about getting into a home,” Lightbody continued. “It’s about staying there, and many of today’s buyers are making life-changing decisions based on a bet that may not pay off.”
Buyers Cut Spending To Carry Mortgage Payments
The financial pressure is already affecting household spending and longer-term decisions.
Nearly one-third of respondents, or 32%, said they have reduced spending on basic necessities because of their mortgage payments. Another 20% have cut their retirement contributions, while 13% have considered delaying having children.
The survey also found that many recent buyers have little room to absorb a financial shock. Eighty-eight percent said at least one common setback could jeopardize their ability to make a mortgage payment.
Two-thirds said the loss of a job or income would put their mortgage at serious risk, while 44% said an unexpected medical expense could make it difficult to remain current.
The results do not measure actual mortgage delinquencies or establish that recent buyers are at imminent risk of default. They do, however, indicate that many households perceive little financial cushion after purchasing their homes.
Greater Trade-Offs Without Rate Relief
If they cannot refinance within the next three years, 40% of respondents expect to take a second job or find additional work.
More than one in five expect to use credit cards for everyday expenses, while 21% anticipate withdrawing money from retirement accounts to keep up with their expenses.
Millennials reported greater exposure than members of Generation X. Among Millennial buyers, 79% said they planned to refinance when they purchased, compared with 64% of Gen X respondents.
More than half of Millennials, or 53%, said their mortgage would not be sustainable without refinancing, compared with 43% of Gen X buyers. Millennials were also more likely to anticipate taking on additional work if they could not refinance.
“The true cost of homeownership extends far beyond the purchase price or the monthly mortgage payment,” Lightbody said. “It’s showing up in the everyday decisions families are making, whether that’s putting off having children, delaying retirement, taking on additional work, or simply cutting back on basic necessities.”
A Motivated Refinance Pool
The findings add another dimension to the potential refinance opportunity created by homeowners who purchased after mortgage rates began rising.
A separate survey covered by NMP in June found that one-third of homeowners were refinancing or expected to refinance within two years. Three-quarters of those considering a refinance held rates above 5%, and nearly half had rates above 6%.
Truework’s latest survey suggests that some of those prospective borrowers may be more than casually interested. Their household finances could depend on reducing their payments.
That creates a highly motivated future refinance pool for LOs, but the opportunity could be sensitive to timing. Prolonged financial pressure may affect borrowers’ credit, income stability, debt levels, and eventual ability to qualify before rates fall far enough to generate meaningful savings.
Even when rates decline, originators will need to determine whether the payment reduction justifies the closing costs and whether restarting or extending the loan term serves the borrower’s longer-term interests.
*This article was primarily written by a human author. AI tools were used in a limited capacity for research assistance or light editing.
