Housing Prices Across Texas Likely Hobbled In 2023

But you’re getting a lot less for $1 million

Link copied

The year 2022 saw the US enter into a recession, as property prices rose drastically as a result of inflation. The financial experts at IBRinfo.org have revealed their property inflation predictions for 2023 in Texas. They also identified two Texas cities as among the top 10 nationwide for diminishing purchasing power.

The financial website experts say before analyzing the data, it’s important to establish the relationship between inflation and property prices. Inflation refers to the rate at which purchasing power drops and prices for goods and services rise to the point that they are no longer affordable for the majority of people. This ultimately has a knock-on effect for the property market as house prices increase and mortgage interest rates climb in an attempt to bring inflation back down to more manageable levels.

Nationwide in 2022, home prices increased by over 6% compared to figures from 2021, according to Forbes. This led to far fewer homes being sold, as the majority of people are unable to afford these higher prices. This has resulted in the supply of homes for sale being far greater than the demand for homes to buy.

IBRinfo.org expects to see things remain relatively the same throughout 2023 as inflation is gradually reduced. Although the rate of inflation is being brought down slowly over time, there is unlikely to be any major financial relief to come to the housing market in the next year. Nationally, mortgage rates will remain almost twice as high as those in 2021, with the typical payment increasing to $2,430 – up 28% (Realtor.com). Across the U.S., home prices will rise another 5.4% in 2023 – with a few select areas seeing prices reduce from those in 2022.

Texas property inflation trends

The housing market is predicted to grow in Texas in 2023. In the year between 2021 and 2022, house prices across the state rose an average of 19.8% (Zillow) in response to inflation, which saw house sales decrease as a result. IBRinfo.org predicts that housing prices across Texas will reduce in 2023 to combat lower house sales, with property prices already slowly starting to fall at year’s end.

In particular, the Dallas-Fort-Worth area has seen the median home price fall from $393,000 in July 2022 to $390,000 in September 2022 – seeing a decrease of $3,000 in just two months (Zillow). Meanwhile, IBRinfo.org predicts that Austin will see a drop in house sales, with the volume of sales decreasing 6.6% in 2023 (Realtor.com).

However, IBRinfo’s research into house prices found that properties in Arlington and Fort Worth have risen from just over $65 per square foot in 2012 to over $180 in 2022 – falling just short of tripling in the span of a decade.

Inflation thoughts

Across the U.S., IBRinfo.org’s team of experts expects to see inflation remain high throughout the entirety of 2023, with a very gradual decrease as the year comes to a close. House prices will steadily decline in some areas, while mortgage rates will remain high overall.

Despite some states seeing house prices starting to fall, purchasing power will continue to decline in 2023 due to increased interest rates, leaving the demand for housing at a similar rate to 2022.

What $1 Million Buys

The website also conducted research to establish the difference between property values in 2012 and 2022.

To do this, they compiled a list of the biggest cities in each of the 50 US states by both size and population. They then used property price data per square foot for these cities, taken from both Zillow and Redfin, spanning the first eight months of both 2012 and 2022. They then calculated how many square feet of property you could buy with $1 million dollars in each city.

Among the Top 10 most populous cities in the U.S., Arlington was ranked fourth. Fort Worth came in fifth.

The research aimed to identify how much property $1 million dollars was worth in 2012 and 2022. Despite being only 10 years between the two sets of price data collected, the differences between the figures were fascinating.

Two Texas cities made the list.

In Arlington in 2012, one million dollars could purchase 15,385 sq. ft. of real estate. That number has plunged to 5,521: a drop of 9,864 sq. ft. Among the Top 10 most populous cities in the U.S., Arlington was ranked fourth.

Fort Worth came in fifth. In 2012, one million dollars would purchase 15,152 sq. ft. on average. For the same amount in 2022, 5,450 sq. ft. could be purchased: a decline of 9,702.