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Leveraging Data-Driven Strategies For Loan Affordability

Spending habits are unpredictable, which may impact consumers ability to buy

Leveraging data-driven strategies
Insider
Director of Product Management, Mortgage Service

Today’s economic climate is fueled by high inflation, elevated interest rates, and changing employment trends, casting a shroud of uncertainty over mortgage lenders. The challenge lies in expanding their lending portfolios and doing so without shouldering undue risks.

Elevated interest rates have created a lending environment where every dollar of income becomes more critical when calculating loan affordability. A borrower who purchased a $300,000 house in 2021 at a 3.75% interest rate would be paying approximately $1,400 per month for their loan payment. In 2023, however, a mortgage on a $300,000 house at a 7% interest rate would cost approximately $2,000 per month. This does not even take into account the fact that a home that cost $300,000 in 2021 would likely cost significantly more in 2023, which also creates higher down payment requirements for borrowers.

In navigating this complex terrain, a vital aspect emerges — loan affordability. When assessing a loan’s affordability, the critical variable comes down to the debt-to-income (DTI) ratio, a comparison between a borrower’s total debt and gross income earnings (pre-tax). The maximum DTI ratio for mortgage qualification can be up to 50% depending on qualifying factors, but financial institutions commonly prefer a more conservative DTI ratio between 35% to 43%.

Successfully determining loan affordability requires the adoption of a data-driven approach to income and employment verification. With this transformation, lenders can gain a clearer picture of borrowers’ financial health while adding an invaluable tool to their arsenal to better understand risk exposure.

The Shifting Sands of DTI

Calculating the DTI ratio is becoming increasingly complex due to tepid job market conditions, inflation, and various other macroeconomic factors. The evolving nature of employment shifting towards the gig economy and/or part-time work has disrupted traditional income assessments, sometimes making it challenging for lenders to calculate a borrower’s income. The growing potential for month-to-month fluctuations in wages compounded by inflation trends may cast uncertainty over a borrower’s ability to stay current with mortgage payments.

Equifax Consumer Credit Trends data from April 2023 reveals an 8% surge in consumer debt compared to a year ago. Meanwhile, a recent Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) study underscores that nearly 37% of households lack the financial cushion to cover expenses for more than a month, even with recourse to savings, loans, or assets. These factors may further complicate the DTI ratio calculation for lenders.

Even with a 1% wage and salary increase from April to June of this year, the Federal Reserve’s numerous interest rate hikes to temper the economy have led to additional affordability hurdles for consumers.

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, January 2023 marked the beginning of a year with fluctuations in consumer spending. Americans saved their income in May at the same rate last achieved in January 2022, a sign that consumers may be becoming more cautious.

Collectively, these data points highlight that consumer spending habits are unpredictable, which may impact loan affordability.

Affordability Driven By Income

Income data is the baseline of information used to calculate the DTI ratio on a loan. Financial institutions employ a myriad of strategies to better understand an applicant’s financial capacity to repay, encompassing sources ranging from traditional to alternative such as bank transaction data or consumer-permissioned data provided through third-party platforms or aggregators or consumer-provided documents (e.g., pay stubs, W-2s).

These approaches, while diverse, potentially expose lenders and consumers to heightened risk. When linked via bank transaction data, many third-party aggregators continue to use consumer data until the consumer manually disconnects the third party from the account. The security burden of financial data storage could be a risk for lenders. Instead, lenders should consider using automated income and employment verification data from trusted sources to fuel loan term determinations while better-mitigating risk.

In the past, a lender may have qualified a borrower on base pay alone, but affordability has become such an issue that some people are tapping their extra income, such as bonuses and commissions, to qualify for loans. It is, therefore, even more important to verify all sources of the borrower’s income to help make sure there are no surprises during the underwriting process.

Trusted Data Leads To Better Opportunities

Helping pave the path for borrowers to make informed financial decisions requires lenders to thoroughly understand the borrowers’ gross spendable income and how much of it can be utilized in the mortgage payment. As lenders pivot to a data-driven approach in gauging borrowers’ DTI ratios, they may also unearth more favorable credit and loan outcomes for these borrowers.

Homebuyer assistance programs have emerged as a promising path to homeownership for a significant segment of aspiring homeowners. Research from Down Payment Resource details that 33% of all declined mortgage applications were eligible for homebuyer assistance, yet rejected due to insufficient cash-to-close or disqualifying DTI ratios.

Loan affordability

This sizable share of potential customers spotlights a lucrative opportunity for lenders to increase volumes while supporting more borrowers in their journey to homeownership, and access to readily available income data facilitates the identification of these prospects.

A timely example that is growing in relevance is the rise of Gen Z as the next generation of homebuyers. Their financial behaviors set them apart, demanding lenders’ understanding of their unique attributes and how affordability challenges intersect with their aspirations.

According to Rocket Homes, Gen Z aspires to homeownership, with 86.2% of 18-24 year-olds aiming for this milestone, and 45% seeking to own a home within the next five years. Despite their enthusiasm, challenges loom for Gen Z. The cohort’s concerns include inadequate down payment funds (21.9%), house price affordability (18.4%), credit sufficiency (16.1%), and student loan debt load (10.5%). The use of automated income and employment verifications may help lenders better understand a Gen Z applicant’s ability to pay.

In the ever-evolving economic environment of 2023, lenders are finding themselves in need of robust tools to expand their lending opportunities responsibly. Income-driven loan affordability determinations are foundational to better serving borrowers; this approach, underpinned by a nuanced understanding of the moving target that is DTI ratio, empowers lenders to navigate challenges and propel borrowers toward brighter financial futures. 

This article was originally published in the NMP Magazine December 2023 issue.
About the author
Insider
Director of Product Management, Mortgage Service
Tracy Huber is director of product management, mortgage service at Equifax Workforce Solutions. She has over 20 years of experience in public accounting, mortgage lending and product development.
Published on
Dec 01, 2023
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